Click the following link to learn more about Ian Mitchell and his trading of stocks, forex and futures.
Frank Delaney IV Market Pulse
The S&P which I use as a general guide had a difficult week closed near its lows at approximately 1886.00.
The market has most likely made its highs for the year. I suggested we were oversold last week. The spike in volatility this past week suggests that we are short term very oversold I wrote last week that we would most likely test the prior week’s lows after the jobs number came out. I suggested a traded in HAL from the long side. The market tested its lows rallied strongly Thursday. I felt my theory for the week was working well till the market fell apart and closed near its lows Friday. If you were long HAL you would have been stopped out. Capital preservation is very important in such a volatile environment. I believe the market will rally this week but we have probably seen the highs for the year. Technicals indicate a short term high volume blow off low. When I begin my market pulse letter in the next few weeks I will send daily observations on specific recommendations. I will keep positions limited to 3 to 5 positions. I think there will be many opportunities on the short side in the weeks to come.
I believe HAL is set up for a retracement higher to the 62 to 65 level in the next couple weeks. The precipitous fall in oil has taken all oil related stocks with it. When the market gets its footing early this week oils service companies will retrace their sharp declines over the last few weeks. Keep an eye on oil to stabilize and make a higher low this week. Discipline and patience will set up some great short opportunities over the next few months. Selling into this break at this point is inappropriate. Looking forward to helping you be your best as we move forward. Patience and discipline.
Have a good week.
Frank Delaney’s Market Pulse will soon be featured on www.stockbarometer.com
Good morning Traders,
From our weekend note to clients.
Visit www.stockbarometer.com to learn more.
Stepping back and looking at something we identified as this market continued higher – participation was decreasing. Now each indicator is different in how it contributes to understanding market movements. The New Highs is in the buy zone. But it can remain at this level for some time. It’s influence is minimized at this point.
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In about a month or so, we’ll be adding Trader Frank Delaney IV to our team at Investment Research Group, Inc./Stock Barometer. In the Interim, here’s a bit on his BIO as well as a market update from this veteran trader.
Bio: Frank A Delaney. Spending my entire career on Wall Street, I was an integral part of the success of two firms: Henderson Brothers Inc. and Bear Wagner, LLC. I was a Senior Managing Director at Henderson Brothers Inc and part of the four person management team that sold the firm in the year 2000. As a Senior Managing Director and Partner at Bear Wagner LLC., I was a key producer, risk manager and proven producer of over a hundred million dollars. I provided direction for over 60 traders and 120 support staff. The key to my production was both technical and fundamental research. One of the keys to my success was being position agnostic to being long or short. I was integral in bringing several firms public including Estee Lauder. My trading skills have developed from many years of being mentored by the most talented technical analysts in the world. With the use of technical analysis expanding into the use of candlesticks with the addition of looking at the fundamentals of both corporations with a view of the domestic and international economy, I have consistently outperformed the market .That with an eye on the domestic and international political, social and technological advancements give me a unique perspective on the markets. The markets themselves continue to evolve over the years. It is extremely important to understand how the markets work so you can navigate trading them. I believe my 25 years of experience can help individuals and groups become more successful.
Stock Market Update and proposed trade
The market as of the close of trading on Thursday September 2nd has had a 10 % correction off its highs for the year . Whether you are looking at the Dow the S&P or the Russell they basically all have corrected approximately 10%. They held Thursdays low on Friday and rallied approx 1%. The market is most likely short term oversold . We will probably test Thursdays low in the next 5 trading days. This is an opportunity for a couple of short term trades from the long side. If you look at the chart I have attached of Halliburton (HAL) you can see where it hammered on Thursday and rallied on Friday.
I believe as long as HAL closes within 50 cents of Thursdays low you should buy it for a 4 to 10 day trade to the 66-68 range. Trailing stop should be entered when it breaks through 65 . The oil sector has been especially hard hit over the last six weeks . Halliburton provides infrastructure to the oil and gas sector whether the price of oil and gas goes up or down, so fundamentally HAL has a solid foundation.
The media has us believing the market rallied on the improvement of the jobless number falling to 5.9%. In fact the reason for the improved job number are from the unemployed falling off the map as they have fallen off the roles after being unemployed for so long. As more people are not counted as they have stopped looking for jobs, obviously the jobs number will improve. As we get closer to November elections Republican groups will come out railing against the legitimacy of the employment numbers and there will be several calls of fraud at several census bureau districts about the unemployment numbers.
Social Political and International Commentary:
The Ebola scare will develop further but will not affect the US population or economy in any meaningful way. The Ebola virus could and should have been addressed earlier by our executive and legislative branch of the US government. Continued lack of political courage and self promotion has hamstringed US political leadership. The enterovirus in children causing paralysis is a much bigger issue that needs to be addressed in the US.
ISIS will continue to be in the news for quite a long time. The US and Allied Sorties have disrupted their routine, but they will continue to change their terror tactics to avoid detection from the air. Turkey will put “boots on the ground” as the group has threatened their borders. The US should use Navy Seal and Black Ops hit and run tactics to demoralize and yes terrorize the ISIS Group. The pressure should be relentless and constant. This along with military advisors will diminish ISISs’ reach . A terrorist event is possible on the US homeland. Homeland Security Forces and infrastructure will have to be grown and kept on the constant alert for years to come. The US borders must be protected . It will take years but the effort should begin know. I am talking about a secure border not a closed border.
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Attn: All Investors
Are You Prepared to Survive the Upcoming BEAR Market?
Warning: The Upcoming Slump Could Destroy Your Portfolio
As investors, we’ve had it good for the past couple of years. The stock market has been on a constant upward trend. But as you’ve probably guessed: This trend is not sustainable.
Three signs indicate that, in the coming year, that upward trend in the market will soon shift downward. These three signs are:
- Increases in stock price makes stock more expensive – too expensive to continue price increases.
- Stock prices are outpacing actual company earnings.
- The Shiller PE Ratio is at crash-level numbers.
Many stock prices have reached new highs. We’ve seen such a phenomenon several times before. And they all happen right before a market crash.
According to the Shiller PE Ratio, today’s stock prices and earnings simply don’t match: Stock prices are, on average, nearly 30 times higher than real company earnings. A stable market’s PE ratio should be at around 15. We’re double that already.
All market crashes in the last 100 years have happened when the PE ratio was above 25.
You Must Prepare for the Upcoming BEAR Market Now, While You Still Have Time!
My gap-trading newsletter provides you with the road map you need to continually profit, in both market surges and market slumps. Every week, I’ll be sending you easy-to-understand gap-trading strategies and individual gap trades.
Regardless of your income, age, or investment strategy, my newsletter can help you make better decisions about the stocks you invest in.
In my Gap-Trading Newsletter, you’ll discover:
- Why price gaps are becoming more frequent and why.
- How to perform a gap analysis in 15 minutes.
- How to predict the trend of an individual stock on a gap chart.
- Where to optimally set your price limits.
- How to set up a gap trade in the morning, without needing to follow the stock throughout the day.
- Why gap-trading works equally well in bear markets as it does in bull markets.
- How to grow your portfolio by several percent per month just trading gaps.
- Why statistics ensure that you’ll make a profit trading gaps.
- Why trading gaps is so easy (hint: You don’t need to time your trades perfectly).
- How to easily determine the exit strategy for any gap trade.
- Why trading gaps instead of trends minimizes risk.
- Why the market bias is insignificant for gap trading.
- And much, much more!
My Portfolio before Gap-Trading
Much like most investors, before I got into gap-trading, I was spending hours upon hours researching stocks. But those hours poured into research rarely meant anything. My investments ended up pretty much the same:
- 1/3 went up.
- 1/3 went down.
- 1/3 went nowhere.
In the end, I spent all that time and money for barely any gain. When the market was good, I made profit overall. When the market was bad, I lost money. That’s how the stock market works: Market bias beats research. The overall direction of the market determines the overall direction of most stocks.
I was tired of being a victim of circumstance. So I began investigating academic journals and statistical studies on the stock market, looking for a strategy that could actually prove profitable.
Long story short, that strategy is gap-trading. The statistical research supports this strategy. And my personal experience in gap-trading backs up that research.
Gaps are more reliable than the news. They’re more reliable than that stock advisor on TV. And they are certainly more reliable than market trends.
I went through the trouble of researching gaps. And now I’m asking you to leverage my knowledge to play the stock market in a smarter, more predictable way.
You don’t need to study gaps before you start trading. In my Gap-Trading Newsletter, I’ll send out weekly gap trades with step-by-step instructions on what to do. I’ll even send out daily updates so that you don’t have to pay attention to the stock. When I say sell, sell.
But if you do want to study gaps, you can do so in bite-size pieces through my newsletter. Every week, I’ll send you an educational article on trading gaps. After only a few months, you’ll know more about gap-trading than will most stock advisors.
How Long Does a Gap Trade Take?
Gap-trading comes in two forms: Long-term gap trading and swing trading. No matter your personal investment style – fast or slow – you can benefit from trading gaps.
- Long-term gap trading: Certain types of gaps indicate a long-term trend that you can ride to profit.
- Swing-trading on gaps: Other types of gaps tell you about short-term trends that will end at a specific price. You can use these gaps as indicators both for swing-trading direction and for knowing when to get out of the position.
But either way, you won’t need to spend more than 15 minutes per trade. Gap trading is very much a hands-off trading method – you don’t have to spend hours and days researching the stock and watching its ups and downs.
Why Start Now?
As stated earlier, the market’s about to switch directions. At a cusp like this, gap-trading is your best bet, because gaps aren’t affected by overall market conditions.
When the market hits its slump – or crash – if you’re trading gaps, you’ll be one of the few investors prepared. Imagine being the only person in your peer group who’s actually benefitting from a market slump. While everyone else at the office is complaining about how they lost thousands in the market, you’ll be talking about what you’re going to buy with your extra spending money.
Who Can Play Gaps?
Because there is no ideal persona for a gap-trader, it’s hard to say what kind of person is most suitable for gap-trading. So I’ll instead lay out the aspects that are not important for playing gaps:
- Your income.
- Your current bank account number.
- Your age.
- Your sex.
- Your trading experience.
- Your risk tolerance.
- Your investment goals.
Gap trading can work for anyone, provided you play gaps in the right way. And if you read my Gap-Trading Newsletter, you will.
What You’ll Get
What you’ll receive when you subscribe to my Gap-Trading Newsletter is time-saving advice that doesn’t require you to spend any extra time in research. My newsletter works as follows:
- Every week, you’ll receive at least one gap trade alert.
- Every day, you’ll receive an update on this gap trade.
- When it’s time to get out of the position, you’ll get a message.
- In addition, every week you’ll also get an educational article on gap trading.
- Moreover, you’ll have direct access to me via email. And sometimes, I’ll even give you call if you have a question to discuss.
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My past three gap trades have netted a 39% ROI. That is, for every $100 I invested, I got back $39. That’s $390 on a $1,000 investment; over $1,000 on a $3,000 investment. And all these trades were performed within one or two weeks, on average.
If you had been with me during those last three trades, you would have made the same amount. I’ll be making more trades, with or without you. It’s entirely up to you whether you’ll be with me in the future.
If you’re ready to get started, here’s what to do:
- Click on “subscribe” below.
- Pay $1.
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- Follow my trades and you’ll make your subscription fees back many times over.
Who Should Not Subscribe?
If you’re just going to read my newsletter without trading, please do not subscribe. I’m offering this service to people who want to act on the information I’ve compiled and experimented with. I want my readers to be in a privileged group of investors who are profiting despite the upcoming market downturn, which is why I’m offering this now.
If you just want to be a spectator, please don’t waste your money. Turn on the financial news instead.
When Should You Subscribe?
This $1 trial offer will only be for a limited time. So the obvious time to subscribe is now. If you wait too long, I cannot offer this newsletter to you at the $1 price – I’m not the one who controls the subscription fee!
Stockbarometer.com is only offering my newsletter at this greatly reduced price as a favor to me. I want more readers; they want more money. That’s a contradiction that, much like the market conditions described at the beginning of this webpage, cannot last long.
Subscribe now or be kicking yourself later.
What Do I Get?
- Weekly trade alerts
- Daily updates
- Sell alerts
- Weekly educational articles
- My personal contact information – Damon@stockbarometer.com
- Occasional call-ins
Why Gap Trading?
- It’s unaffected by market bias.
- You won’t be hit by the upcoming market slump/crash.
- Easy to predict.
- Frequently appear.
- Highly profitable.
How Much Time Will I Need to Spend?
Approximately 15 minutes per trade.
How Will I Know When to Exit
- Each trade will be accompanied with a limit price.
- I’ll also send you an email when it’s time to exit.
How Much Does This Cost
- $1 for the first month.
- $27.95 for each month after (this price will increase in the future, except for those of you who “lock in” at this price now).
Will This Information Be Made Publically Available Elsewhere?
- Individual trades: No. This is subscriber-exclusive information.
- Educational articles: Some educational articles will be republished on other websites and books. However, subscribers will see them first.
Can I Follow Your Advice for Stocks AND Options?
Yes. This newsletter is mainly focused on stocks, but you can play options the same way. If you have any specific questions about how to apply my trading advice to options, please email me.
How Risky Is This?
Trading gaps is one of the least risky trading methods simply because gaps are consistent in their patterns. Regardless, risk is always present, but I will help you limit risk by giving you exit strategies in case the trade doesn’t go the way we want it. You’ll also receive an “exit alert” email if we need to exit our position early.
Use the code PG01 upon checkout for the $1 deal.
- See more at: http://www.stockbarometer.com/pagesNST/learnmore.aspx
Good morning Traders,
I don’t often use the word crash when talking about the markets, but we do
have a popular indicator that’s been flashing a signal for a couple days
now. Let’s walk through it here.
There are 3 components. First is a market that’s trending higher (10
day is on an uptrend). Second is the number of new lows rising above a key
threshold. And third is the McClellan Oscillator below zero. The
first two are shown in the chart below:
And the third is here:
Now the above charts are for the Nasdaq. What about the NYSE?
And the third component:
Ok, so as the charts say – this condition suggests crash potential for the
next 30 days or so. And this indicator is also popular for giving false
signals. I included it as part of my research several years ago, but feel
it’s a good indicator to watch for certain things – like the # of new lows
accelerating as the market makes new highs. That suggests something’s
wrong with the market or there’s an underlying shift in the markets going on
that can translate to weaker stock prices.
Looking back at the last significant move lower in the market for a repeating
pattern (remember, we’re trying to identify what algorithms are driving the
market - and I believe institutions are trading the stock bond relationship
The 2011 drop came hard and fast. If you didn’t react quickly, you
missed most of the move and then had to wait a couple months as the market tried
to hammer out a bottom.
Note – the charts above are part of our research indicators – over 300
popular and proprietary indicators that we use to build formulas to give us
a timing advantage in the market.
I also want to give you a heads up to some changes here. The potential
move in the markets could be very bearish, so I’m working to bring in some
traders who an help you profit from the move. First up is Damon Verial,
who’s heading up the Price Gap Option Trader. You
can try his service for $1 by clicking here and using discount code
We’re also bringing in a futures and forex trader who’s also agreed to write
a stock trading service featuring his unique skills to help protect us and help
us profit from the coming decline, whether or not it develops soon, or next year
when the fed starts raising rates (though I expect the market move to
precede the event).
And not to mention Gregory Clay, who’s only added to his gains since
bringing him on several months ago – he still hasn’t posted a loss!
His weekly income credit spreads newsletter is getting some
great press. Here are the links if you’re interested:
Income Credit Spreads
Clay’s Option Newsletter – Weekly Income Credit Spreads
So with all going on in the market, we’ll do what we can to give you the 1)
fact based research and 2) profitable advice that will help you profit or at
least protect your assets from downside by diversification and proper risk
management of trades.
Good morning Traders,
A brief update on our position in oil. Visit www.stockbarometer.com to subscribe.
Back on 7/25 we recommended the following options for USO based on our research.
Here is the current pricing on the September PUTS:
So the 37.5′s are up some 360%…
And here are the October PUTS:
The October 37.5′s are up over 260%.
That being said, what’s our view on oil now? As you know, we’re developed several directional indicators on oil (and gold, which we’re long PUTS and Nat Gas, which we’re long CALLS). It’s all available in our research indicators. But here’s a general one on supply and demand – because periodically it matters:
Sometimes the basic law of supply and demand matters. This chart is showing oil inventories growing, which isn’t something you’d expect in a heating up economy. Sure – economic reports are looking very positive, but there’s a lagging factor to them. Our indicators suggest that the economy is cooling off – and oil is one of those factors…
That being said, oil volatility is climbing, which is what it needs to do in order to set a bottom. I’m guessing around the next options expiration we may start seeing some bottoming action. To learn more visit www.stockbarometer.com and try any of our services.