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If you are a financial institution, a hedge fund, a public company, a financial planner or even a private investor?  Then my research can help you make smarter, more profitable decisions with your and your client’s money.

For the past 12 years, I have been developing and modeling various timing indicators for the NYSE, Nasdaq, QQQ, SPY, Gold (GLD), Oil (USO), Bonds (TLT), US Dollar (Dxy) using various market data including breadth, options activity, volatility, volume, ticks and new highs/lows.

My market research monitors and models third party data sources such as the AAII data, ECRI Data, equity and bond money flow and Investor’s Intelligence Data.  It contains several seasonality, cycles and forecasting tools for the stock market, oil and gold.  The data is inputted by hand, every day.  And the data goes back over 12 years.

Click here to see a list of indicators included in our analysis and research.

Normally, this research alone would be worth thousands.  But for the remainder of 2012, I am making access to my research available for the cost of only $50/month.  And that’s not all you’ll get.

This research arose out of my development of a highly profitable market timing system called The Daily Stock Barometer.  Each market day I send clients an email running through some of our various indicators and give my view of the markets and identify when one of these indicators is reaching an extreme and giving a signal.   You can use this to help your investing, trading, and I also give advice on retirement accounts for those with Roth IRA and 401ks.

In addition, you also get access to Explosive Stock Alert and Stock Options Speculator – two services that show you what stocks and options to buy or sell when we get system buy and sell signals.

Put it all together, and you have a service that should be priced at around $250/month.   So why isn’t it?

Actually, my intentions are to increase the price of this service in 2013.  However, at this point in my career, my goal is to get more recognition for my contribution to the world of stock market analysis.   I’ve written a daily article on the markets for about 10 years.  I spoke at the world money show in Chicago in 2011 and I’ve taught traders from around the world how to improve their trading.  But my primary goal is to get on the national scene.  And to do that, I need exposure.  And to do that, I will underprice my service at $50/month and practically give away my decade worth of research to grow my client base and gain broader recognition.

Sign up for a 4 week trial today for only $1, simply click here and use discount code DSB1 when signing up.

You’ll get access to our site and begin reviewing our research after signing up.  The education alone is invaluable.

I look forward to having you join us.

Regards,

Jay DeVincentis, President

Investment Research Group, Inc.

Founder – www.stockbarometer.com

Visit my Blog here…

Thoughts On The Stock Market And Facebook IPO

Here are My Thoughts On The Stock Market And Facebook IPO:

As the stock market comes to a close this Friday, we are looking at our 5th day of sideways movement, in fact, the past 3 days have drawn the exact same price action on the futures, remaining in a range.

Normally this action would be very bearish, but here’s a bit of data that might make you think otherwise.

This is a chart I’ve been sharing with my clients.  As most are expecting the markets to fall off a fiscal cliff here, I’m in the other camp.  The above shows that MANY are betting on a decline – and historically, whenever that happens, markets tend to travel upward.

Throw in the fact that the markets have had every excuse to sell off this week, a rising bond, a rising dollar, scary news in Europe, and the markets held up.

Now we have the Facebook IPO coming out next Friday.  I’m advising my clients that the markets are more likely to rise into next Friday, than they are to move lower.

That doesn’t mean I’m overly bullish.  The fed actually controls the strings on the market here.  Not saying I believe in market manipulation, but the fed will stop buying bonds in June.  And when bonds go down, stocks will go up.  Generally speaking.  So whatever damage the markets face in the short term, I do see longer term, they have tremendous energy to rally.  All controlled by the fed.   So when the fed says they have tools, trust me, they still do.

And I have the research to prove it. CLICK HERE and you can sign up here and access my market research for only $1, for one month.  Make smarter financial decisions.  Enjoy more of your money.  While the government is still printing it.

Navigating The Stock Market Day

For those of us wo trade for a living, navigating the market day is what it’s all about.  You’re always watching the clock, in fact, the clock watching starts Sunday night, as futures open up.  And usually, depending on the previous week, especially the previous Friday – that Sunday morning couldn’tcome soon enough.

Generally, my day starts with my first pot of coffee – yes pot, not a cup… I grind my Dunkin Donuts beans, load up the coffee maker and I’m good to go.  Well, once I feed my cat…  And here’s the clock:

6:00 am – CNBC’s squak box starts.  I join Joe, Becky and the new guy.  This is when I do my research on the markets.  I think best when the markets are NOT open.  Once they’re open, the brain enters a different state.  I call it the trading state.

CNBC is the Ring Master in this sircus we call the markets.  If you’re looking for a read on the emotion of the market, just turn on this show.  And learn to do the opposite of almost everything they say…  Except for Art Cashin, he’s all right…

8:00 am – The premarket technically opens.  I don’t recommend trading the premarket.  The volume is light.  But if you have to, make sure there’s liquidity to do so.

8:30 am – this is normally when you get a slew of economic reports.  There’s not much you can do about   reports that come out at this time.  They’ll usually set the tone for the open.  But be careful, hoe markets open, is normally not how they close.

9:30 am – US Markets Open up.  The markets are open for 6.5 hours.  So they are closed a lot longer than they are open.  This is an important consideration.  Volume is usually in the shape of a barbell, meaning higher at the open and close, quiet in the middle.

10:00 am – (or 9:55) this is when you normally get another slew of economic reports.  This creates the 10am pivot, basically look for a counter trend move to initiate around this period.

11:30 am – European Markets Close.  This can be an important consideration, depending on what’s happening over there.  Also keep an eye on these markets before our open.  If they’re down 1-2% – look for our markets to follow them – and usually match them.

2:00 pm – Gold/Metal Futures close

2:30 pm – Energy (oil) futures close.

3:00 pm – Bond and currency futures market close.

4:00 pm – US Markets close – remember, the most important part of every market day is the close.

6:00 pm – Jim Cramer’s Mad Money comes on.  My kids can’t stand when I leave this show on.  They’re generally a good judge of character…

Now between 5 and 7 most of the futures will have to close for 30-45 minutes to settle.  These are 24 hour markets, except that they have to close at some point during the day to mark a closing and open price.

8:00 pm – Post market trade closes.  Asian Markets open.

3:00 am – Asian Markets close.  European Markets open.

And there you have it.  So just remember, for every global market, they have their own economic reports that could move our markets – depending on market conditions.

Click here to learn more.

CSCO Puts

Last Friday, we issued a recommendation to buy CSCO Puts at $1.09.  The July expiration, 20 Puts to be exact.  They’re now trading over $3.00  That’s about 200% in less than a week.  And they are by no means done.

You have to love the power of options!

Want to learn how I do it and get access to the same tools and research I’ve developed over the last 12 years?

Click here and use Discount Code DSB1 when signing up – you’ll get 4 weeks of advice for only $1.

We could be on the verge of a huge move in the markets.  Sign up today to make sure you participate to the fullest!

Become a client today!

Here are some more recommendations from last week:

Regards,

Jay DeVincentis, President

Investment Research Group, Inc.

Founder – www.stockbarometer.com

Telegraphed move in gold – what’s next?

Good Morning Traders,

Well, not so good for the markets here.  As a heads up, later last week we reinitiated our shorts, recommended several PUT trades and set up the potential weakness in oil and gold.  And it’s really starting to play out today.

Let’s take a closer look at gold.  You would think, if it’s the end of the world, that gold would rally.  But I’m all about avoiding the crowd mentality.  Where was the crowd with gold?

gold options

People are always talking about polls.  Well, to me, the market data represents the best poll out there, as it’s actually made up of people giving their opinion, with REAL MONEY!  In this case, people were so bullish on GOLD, that wen the crowd leans left, you profit by leaning to the right.

This is what I do for my clients.  If you join me, I will let you in, allow you to see my research, and I’ll show you how you can periodically profit from these extremes that periodically occur.  12 years ago I started developing these indicators to tell me when to buy and sell stocks, when to put long term money to use in my 401k plan, when to rebalance from stocks to bonds and vice versa, and when to expect markets to bottom – because that’s when the real money is made.  My research has allowed me to make some pretty significant calls on the market over the past decade.

Stick with me, and you’ll be around for the next one.

As for the stock market, things are getting ugly, and should get uglier.  The market is not respecting the level of selling we’re seeing.  I’d love to have you on board as a client to help you identify the next bottom.  And you can sign up for only $1 and for 4 weeks, see my
view on the markets, and you can peruse my indicators.  The education alone is worth much more.

Click here to sign up today.  Use Discount Code “DSB1″ on the second page to get your $1 trial.

Regards,

Jay DeVincentis, President

Investment Research Group, Inc.

Founder – Stockbarometer.com

PS: My work can help you with every financial question you may have.  If you can’t find an answer, contact me, and I’ll show you how.  And if I can’t – I’ll do the research and develop an indicator for you.  My research is always growing.

Again, Click here to sign up right now. Use Discount Code “DSB1″ on the second page to get your $1 trial.

 

ECRI Growth Index

The ECRI Growth Index is painting a potentially dangerous view of the economic outlook.  Let’s take a look at the current reading:

ECRI Growth Index

Just as a disclaimer, this is unadjusted data.  The ECRI will update old data after the fact.  This is an economists view on indicators.  I do not and would never support adjusting past data.  Why?  Because I use these charts to train my brain so to speak to interpret the past to judge the future.  Much akin to Tom Brady watching old game tape to learn from the past, allowing him to make better decisions in the future

But if you adjust past data, you can’t adjust what your brain has learned.

So the tick lower here COULD BE the start of something bigger.  We’ve been looking for it, it’s a little earlier than I thought we’d see, but it makes a lot of sense that we’d begin to see this turn lower, meaning the overseas weakness is starting to infect us.  And the stock market is a leading indicator, so if it turns lower here, there will be a cascade effect lower.

Just be careful, always looking for a ‘crash’ or ‘black swan’ doesn’t make it more likely that there will be one.  They are such rare events, and with everyone aware of this situation in Europe, it’s hard to think we’ll see one right now…

But there are other clues.

What's The Individual Investor Doing With Their Money?

I showed this chart last week to my clients.  Without getting into its derivation here, it shows me what the individual investor is doing, versus the professional.  These spikes higher are normally signs we’re at a top…

Why?  Because it shows that the individual is becoming a bigger player in the market.  And they’re usually wrong…

So where does that leave us?

Interpreting future market direction is a process that I’ve likened to the old tv game show concentration where you are trying to solve a puzzle as individual pieces covering the puzzle are removed.  So each day, each hour, each minute give us a better view of the puzzle.  Sometimes the puzzle is easy to solve, sometimes more difficult.

We take daily data points from the market every day, and enter them into an algorithm that gives us the most likely future market direction.

We’re starting to see more bearish signs…

To learn more about the ECRI, click our ECRI WLI GROWTH page here.

To access our research, get our calls on the market, click here: stock market timing.

Regards,

Jay DeVincentis, President

Investment Research Group, Inc.

Money Management Service

Investment Research Group, Inc. now offers money management services (investment management) with our dedicated broker.

How would you like to invest in a fund that’s like a hedge fund, but better;

  • You always maintain control your money
  • It never leaves your hands (it stays in your own account)
  • you can pull it out at any time
  • you can even decide not to participate in any position taken
  • or stay in a position when we close it
  • participate as little or as much as you want
  • You only pay a fixed fee for money management.
  • You don’t have to give up 20-50% of your gains like a hedge fund.
  • You have access to the manager.
  • You get a daily email from the fund manager giving his outlook for the market.
  • There’s no minimum investment
  • Anyone can invest in it (following a limited rollout)
  • You can get the potential to access hedge fund like returns
  • There’s no lock up period like hedge funds where you can’t touch your money
  • And money coming in and out of the fund WILL NOT impact fund performance

I’ve partnered with a brokerage firm to offer a hybrid, Long/Short Directional investment/money management utilizing leveraged ETFs and managed off the quantitative signals from my research.

To participate, email me your contact information at jay@stockbarometer.com and we will set up a phone discussion on expectations and how to get started.

What’s driving the stock market here

Here’s an excerpt from my morning note to my clients.  As always you can become a client for only $1 – and get 4 weeks access to all my research.  It will open your eyes on what really moves the market.

On large up days…   Did you ever watch a football game that was coming down to the wire.    The game is close and one team is bringing the ball down to score, controlling the clock, and the other teams defense just can’t stop them.  Then they do something crazy – the defense will let the team score – so they can get the ball back and at least have a chance of tying the game by scoring on the other end.  So the defense just steps aside – as the running back runs straight through the defense and scores.

That’s what Tuesday was like…  The bears stepped aside – let the bulls run in and score – give up the short term to try and win the game.  They (the bears) will be back today.  This is nothing new, it happens quite frequently in the markets (well, frequently from my perspective).  And here’s what it looks like:

SPY BONDS RSI STOCK MARKET

Remember, the market is run by computers, by algorithms, and they’re all competing with each other for gains.  Periodically they will all lean in one direction.  Sometimes for a day.  Sometimes for a week.  Sometimes longer.  All these programs operate in different time frames.  The short term traders like to make their gains more consistently, in small chunks.  Some people are a little more patient, and look for intermediate term opportunities (that more describes the barometer).  And even others apply long term algorithms, which function off weekly price action or even longer.

Point is, I’ve been doing this long enough to know that it frustrates you to be short when the market moves up as it did on Tuesday and last Thursday.  Even though our position is still profitable.  There’s a psychological component to trading that cause us to focus on the money we didn’t make, more so than the money we did make.

Remember, you can always apply your own strategies to the barometer depending on your availability to trade.  Tightening stops or taking profits early is something I do with my own trading.  But that’s because I’m in front of a screen all day long.  I realize most of you are not.  And this system was formulated to target the larger moves – and giving up the short term 1-3 day moves.  That’s a fun game, but you have to be in front of a screen and migrate down to 60-min charts to really take advantage of it.

Then there’s also the component of short term trading that will wipe you out when you get into significant trends – such as we just went through in the first quarter of this year.

When I developed the barometer system, there are key considerations.
1) it minimizes the number of decisions.  The more you trade, the more ‘decisions’ you have to make.  That doesn’t make trading easier.  In fact, it makes it much more difficult to trade.   We maintain an ‘always in’ system, where we’re either short or long.  I’m not smart enough to know what will happen next.  As soon as you apply that judgment, you’re more likely to miss a significant move in the market.

2) it is a fixed system that targets a certain type of move in the market.  You can’t serve all masters when trading.   You don’t walk into a casino and go from game to game when one game isn’t working.  Learn one thing, and do it better than anyone else.  I know that the barometer will catch several of these moves over the course of a year, because they always reoccur.  However, if I deviate from the system to try and capture short term moves, and the market goes into a mid or long term trend, then I’ve done wrong by the system.

3) It is an end of day system that waits for the next day to make the call.  The process of reading the market is much more complex than just entering a few numbers into a spreadsheet (well, 4 spreadsheets now) and making a decision.  I’m a big subconscious, thin slicing, blink kind of guy – so everything I do is about training my brain to see things a certain way.  Just like a quarterback watching game film to learn from mistakes, I break down my mistakes when I trade (and advise you).  The barometer is the same formula since 2005, with only a few modifications.  But the knowledge and experience that’s behind the service has been growing ever since I got into the markets.   You never stop learning as a trader.

 

Nassim Taleb The Black Swan

Nassim Taleb The Black Swan

As a data-tician, someone who absorbs himself in the data of the market looking for anomolies to exploit for profit, the topic of the Black Swan is very important to me.  In fact, there’s common misunderstanding that I want to address here when it comes to the Black Swan theory.

First, let’s agree on what a Black Swan is:

1.The event is a surprise (to the observer).
2.The event has a major impact.
3.After its first recording, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected (e.g., the relevant data was available but not accounted for).

Most people consider a black swan event to be a negative event.  I.e. a stock market crash, 9/11, WWI.   However, that’s not always true.  Things such as the Internet, Google – or even Facebook/Social Media could be considered a Black Swan.

This isn’t meant to be a synopsis of the book, which is an OK read.   The reason I’m writing about it today is that there are some great points in the book that I want to point out for traders.

Just imagine if you had the ability to point out a Black Swan Event, position for it, and profit from it.

Essentially, my trading style that I sell to others is called the stock barometer.  It’s an algorythm that moves like a sine wave and all we do is position for every move with the understanding that we DO NOT know what the market is going to do next.  But we do know that it can be only 1 of 3 things.

  1. The market goes higher
  2. The market goes lower
  3. the market goes sideways

So if you position for a move lower, and just so happen do get a Black Swan event, then by matter of skill AND luck, you will participate greatly.  Unless you position contrary to the Black Swan event.

I believe one of the biggest issues with trading is hindsight.  And that’s component 3 in a Black Swan.  And that’s the reason as much as I teach people to read charts, once they learn how to read the charts, I tell them to forget everything they see…  Easier said than done.

If trading were as easy as reading a chart, then since everyone has access to charts and everyone has access to material which teaches you HOW to read charts, then anyone can be a successful trader.

If that’s the case, then why isn’t everyone a great trader?

Because it’s more than just reading charts.  Much more…

I believe our brains are wired against our success as traders.  And as smart as you may be, and as much as you may even understand the minds reaction to the input it receives when trading, whether that input is one computer screen, six screens, CNBC on your TV, etc., you have to think contrary to your minds normal processes to be successful.

Again, easier said than done.

Our minds are wired to identify trends in everything we see and experience.  And we act upon those experiences through the mechanical functions of the brain.  Though our dopamine system which 98% of the time, we don’t even know is operating – however, it controls about 98% of all our actions.

Getting back to my main point, there’s an area of study that Taleb touched on that I’ve delveoped some material on.   In the book he uses a basic statistical test comparing two hospitals, one being larger and one having a higher percentage of boys born than girls.  Most would answer the larger hospital would have the higher percentage of boys being born, but the answer is the opposite.  It’s much more likely that the smaller hospital would experience an outlyer event.  The larger hospital would experience closer to the normal 50% with the higher sample rate.

Ok, now let’s apply that to the stock market.  When the market trades, volume fluctuates higher and lower.  So when are you more likely to have a larger outlyer event?  On low volume.

Let’s take it to the next level.  Say we’re looking at options activity on a specific issue.  We have historcal action, so we know where the relative extremes exist.  I would say one would expect you could use the options activity i.e. put call ratio, combined with the relative volume action, to identify periods where large outlyer events are more likely to occur.

Now I would never suggest that these large outlyer events could be a Black Swan, but periodically luck combines with skill to enable you to more likely be positioned for an event – before it occurs.

Stay tuned, as I publish some of this data.  And if you want access to it, simply sign up here.

Regards,

Jay DeVincentis, President

Investment Research Group, Inc.

 

SPY versus Bonds Relative Strength

This week we’ll take a look at our SPY versus Bonds Relative Strength indicator:

First, you need a basic understanding of stocks and bonds.  The bond market is roughly 10 times the size of the stock market.  That means when money is flowing into bonds, stocks generally take a hit on the lower liquidity.  And vice versa – when money is flowing out of bonds – that money generally will seek higher return, making stocks attractive.

So where are we now?

SPY Bonds Relative Strength Indicator

Ok, I’ll admit, there are a lot of lines on this chart.  I didn’t create it for general use, but it has been very good at defining the various stages of the market here.

Here’s what’s on the chart.  SPY – blue line; Bonds (TLT) - pinkish line; and the SPY/Bonds RSI – red line.

Generally speaking, when bonds are heading lower, stocks are rising.

A word of caution – while we’re still “Bullish” longer term, bonds are potentially bottoming here – a bounce in bonds means more selling in stocks.  So stay tuned.

How can you access this data?  Well, if you have $1, you can access it…  And get access to our 4 newsletters for 30 days.  Click this link to sign up:

Top Stock Market Newsletter

Stock Market Timing Strategies

There are numerous Stock Market Timing Strategies here’s one to ponder today:

stock market timing strategies

Market timing is all about timing the swings in the market to make investment decisions.  The most difficult part of market timing is the performance of the brain is often at odds to us in making the right decisions.  While we won’t get into exactly why the brain works against us, just understand that our dopamine system drives 98% of our behavior…

I developed the above indicator when I got into the stock market.  It takes a dozen tools used by traders to ‘decide’ and normalizes each so that they trigger signals in a similar time period and in a similar level.  The resulting output is a sine wave (in normal market conditions) and the level and direction of the indicator tells us what the market is doing.

For example, when a market moves sideways or tests highs or lows, price action may look the same, but what’s happening behind the market is often not – and the most telling.  Remember, anybody can pull up a stock of the market, so it’s of little use (again, some people will say it is, but remember, that’s a function of the brains dopamine system).

So what do we have here?  Quite simply, the market has been moving higher off a longer term buy signal – the release of a high level of energy can last a signifiant amount of time in the market and we’re seeing the extent of that now.  The key will be what happens to this energy as the market retests previous levels.

Want access to this and other market timing data?  Interested in finding out what happens next?  Click the following link.

Top Stock Market Timing Strategies Newsletter

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