In stock market timing, there are very complex indicators and some indicators that are very simple.  Here’s a simple one.  The Nasdaq Arms Index, develeoped by Richard Arms, is a ratio of advancing and declining breadth over the ratio of advancing and declining volume.  Here’s what it looks like right now:

Nasdaq Arms Trin

It is reaching a relative low level, which would suggest we’re closing in on a bottom.  Based on this and some of our other research, I would expect a low formed this week.

By the way, it’s called the TRIN as well, because it was referred to as the Trading Index – or TR-IN…

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Timing the stock market is all about reading the clues from the data. Here we look at Nasdaq Cumulative Volume for a signal.

The bullish interpretation of this data is that cumulative volume has exceeded the previous two highs.  Price action tends to follow action confirmed by volume.

The bearish interpretation of this indicator is that if it crosses below the  yellow line, which is the 34-day moving average – we should move into a mid term sell off…  We’re not there yet.

Stock Market Timing

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Good morning traders,

I apologize for not updating recently.  I’ve been busy with some other projects.  I want to take a moment to share where we are…

We had been calling for a 11/15 stock market low and it came in right on time.  We remain positioned long.  And while the easiest part of this rally may be over, I still don’t think it’s done.

Why an 11/15 low?  Well, as you know I’ve spent the last 12 years building stock market models and following various stock market cycles.  11/15 was a 9 month cycle low per our cycles/seasonaity chart:

Stock Market Cycles and Seasonality

We’re still bullish into 12/17 and possibly beyond, but we’ll have a few tests along the way.  Why 12/17?

Here’s a chart I shared with over 300 hedge funds in March of last year…  It’s my stock market forecast for 2012, that I put together back in 2011…

Stock Market Forecast

Without getting into too much detail about the derivation of this chart, we use it to determine our potential key reversal dates.  I’ve been publishing this for over a decade, and sometimes these dates are so accurate, it’s worth paying attention to.  And periodically you have a year like this one, where if you followed the model, you’d be very wealthy…

It too was calling for a 11/15 key reversal date.  Given the market action going into that date, we saw confluence in our call for a 9 month cycle low around 11/15.

Thinking back to the end of last year, I was speaking at the World Money Show in Chicago telling everyone in a very Cramer-esk way, to buy, buy, buy…  That’s where I was 3 weeks ago.

So what about 2013?

I use the month of December to start building my models for the next year.  And this year is no different.  As early as today I’ll start the work it takes and by the end of the month, I’ll have digested the data (subconsciously) and be able to put together my model.

And given the accuracy of my work in 2012, I expect a little more attention this year.

If you’d like to see my work, I give it to all my clients.  Feel free to visit my site at www.stockbarometer.com and sign up for the daily stock barometer, where I review my research daily and give you a few of the 300 or so models that are giving a reversal signal.

Remember, you financial success is not about making one BIG investment decision, it’s the sum of hundreds of smaller correct decisions that builds a good financial base and will keep you heading in the right direction.  My goal has always been to help more people, make better decisions with their money…0

Again, feel free to visit my site, www.stockbarometer.com and sign up to any of my services and you’ll get access to my research.

As referenced in my morning note to clients, overnight there was some movement in the Intrade numbers on the election.  While President Obama still has the lead, it is narrowing.

Romney President Intrade

As for our signals – we remain on a sell:

qqq

Visit www.stockbarometer.com for more information…

Here’s the chart I referenced in this morning’s advisory:

options expiration

Click on the image to view it full size.

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Selling covered calls can help you profit more from your stocks!  We do the work for saving you research time!  As a member of the Daily Stock Barometer System, you get Covered Call trading advice for up to 5 of your own stocks.

How’s it work?  Just CLICK HERE to sign up for our advisory (only $1 for the first 4 weeks) and email me your 5 stock pics and you’ll get up to weekly advice on which Covered Calls are the best to sell – boosting profits on your current stock portfolio.

The covered calls advice will be featured in our tables and organized by potential profit.

We save you time and help you make money by putting our powerful tools to work for you – for your stocks!

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What is a Covered Call?  You own stock shares, and you sell calls at a strike greater than or equal to the stock purchase price. You profit if the stock rises or moves sideways but your upside profit is limited. You lose if the stock moves somewhere below your initial stock purchase price. The loss is offset by the sell call credit.

Here is a summary on how you can put covered calls to work for you.

Covered Calls

The basic covered call is a relatively simple strategy. The owner of a security sells the right to have their security purchased at a predetermined price in the future in return for money now. If the security price does not fall over the life of the option, the call writer will keep the premium collected when the call was sold. The call writer’s profit is limited in exchange for the premium.

Strategies for covered call writing depend on the objective.

· Supplement Return

Covered call writers interested in supplementing the return of existing holding will tend to sell covered calls out of the money. The expectation is not that the security price will rise, but that it will not fall. The seller of out of the money calls often expects to continue holding the security, but hopes to reap some extra return from the proceeds of selling the call.

·       Hedge Against Loss

Covered call writers can protect against downside price movement by selling in the money calls. This is commonly done after a rise in a security that is already held, to protect some of the gains that were already made. Although less time premium is collected on the call, the risk of loss is lessened by the amount that the call is in the money.

·       Speculative Strategies

There are strategies that set objectives such as Doubling in 2 Years, or earning 10% a Month. A portfolio can be doubled in two years by successively selling covered calls that return 50% time premium for a term that last approximately 1 year. It is also possible to sell covered calls that return 10% in approximately one month. Both of these strategies require that the underlying stock price is at or above the strike price at expiration, and that this goal can be achieved repeatedly. Theoretically, a stock will lose some value 50% of the time.

How to interpret these lists

Each list is sorted by the Return Rate to Expiration.  As you can see, some covered calls can produce a potential annualized return rate of 75 to over 100% – so you can see why this is such a lucrative endeavor!  Second consideration is the probability of a profit.

Probability of Profit is the probability that the predicted stock price falls within the option trade’s profit zones. The predicted stock price distribution is computed by projecting the stock price randomly into the future using the SV.

Upside Breakeven: An option trade almost always has a point where the value of the trade goes from losses to profits. The stock price where the profit crossing occurs is referred to as the breakeven price. Many option spreads have two breakeven prices. The higher breakeven price is the upside breakeven and is usually above the stock price. The downside breakeven price is the lower stock price crossing of the option expiration risk curve.

How to trade a Covered Call

By selling a call you grant the buyer the right to buy 100 shares of the underlying stock or index at the strike price any time prior to expiration. You receive the option premium from the call buyer, and the brokerage house takes its cut from both of you. The actions that may occur include: you later sell the option, the option expires and you keep the premium, or the buyer exercises the call and you must provide the shares.

You own 100 shares of a stock or index. Using TXN in the prior example, you decide you would not mind selling it at an option Strike price of 110. Your desired strike price is 110. You sell a TXN Jan00 call at 110. Owning the stock and selling a call is an example of a covered call option trade.

In this covered call option trade you receive 3.25*$100 = $325 dollars into your account (minus brokerage commissions). The Jan00 110 call on Dec 10 has no intrinsic value; hence the $325 is all time value.

If the buyer of the call never exercises it before expiration, you get to keep the $325 dollars, the option premium, and your TXN shares. If the buyer of the call exercises it, you sell your TXN index shares at 110 to the buyer and again keep the $325 premium. You might wonder how a covered call loses money. The call buyer probably exercised the option, because TXN rose above the 110 strike price. The call seller does not participate in price movement above 110 and also loses the 100 shares of the stock.

·       Risks of Covered Call Writing

Writing covered calls is generally considered a conservative option strategy. This only holds true if covered calls are written on conservative stocks. The covered call writer will suffer losses if the underlying security price drops. The most significant measure of this risk is the volatility. Writing covered calls on stocks with low volatility is conservative. Writing covered calls on highly volatile stocks is inherently more risky.

·       Effect of Dividends on Calls

When a stock pays a dividend, the price of the stock is reduced by the amount of the dividend. For example, if Frontline (FRO) closes at 41.50 and pays a $2.00 dividend, the open price will be adjusted downward prior to the open to $39.50. There may appear to be an advantage to the call writer, since it is known that the price of the stock will drop. Why not sell the $40 call when it is known that the stock will drop $2? The short answer is that the call is discounted to reflect the impending drop in the stock price.

Regards,

Investment Research Group, Inc.

www.stockbarometer.com

Well, here’s a clue…

qqq bonds tlt rsi

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Gold has put in a prety significant run in the short term back up to previous highs, but still below it’s 150 day moving average – a popular view on the health of gold.  Here’s some data I shared with my clients on the what we’re seeing for gold:

Gold Trading

You can look at option activity as somewhat of a sentiment indicator showing fear and euphoria.  When traders pile into one side of any market, the market tends to move to the other end of the range.

We are getting close to a level where I would consider taking profits or even positioning short for a move back down towards lows.  Obviously this is a short term speculative trade, so adjust position size accordingly.  And wait for the price action to reverse, as everything still looks very bullish here.  But once it does reverse I do expect the action downward to be sharp.

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As a gold trader, I’m always looking for an edge.  I’m not talking about looking at a stock chart, because stock carts are so over rated as a tool to trade with.  Why?  Because everyone can see a chart.  There’s no inside information there.  And the market has a highly random component.  No one knows what will happen tomorrow.  And unknown to you = random.  Plus, the gold chart isn’t suited well for technical analysis since the metal is so influenced by currency changes – the price action is not primarily driven by technical price and volume levels…

What I’m talking about is inefficencies created by traders.  In my studies of options activity on gold, we have two components.  The actual put call ratio and the put call ratio on the open interest.  The ratio of these two data points tells you when there’s an inefficiency – when the pcr is deviating from the oi pcr – and this generates an opportunity.

We have one of those opportunities RIGHT NOW.

Before I show you the data, I must remind you that not every one of these inefficient events will result in a winning trade.  And the efficiency of the signal is unknown until it plays out.  Meaning the signal may produce a 1% monve (yawn) or a 10% move, which can make you a healthy sum, whether you want to play it by trading GLD, a 2x leveraged ETF on gold, or Gold options…

So here it is:

How To Trade Gold

As a trader, you want to trade extremes.  And extreme highs and lows are opportunities to take advantage of future price movement.  This extreme is als following a peak in call buying generated in the beginning of July.  That peak is working it’s way off, but has not reached an extreme in Put Buying – where at that point, I would get more bullish on gold.

This is only one of a few of our timing indicators on gold.

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