We consider ourselves experts on monitoring market price, internal and sentiment data.  Periodically we’re asked to look at new sentiment indicators and we have added some to our data base.  We monitor them for years before we start using conclusions from the data. 

Here’s one that came on our radar recently:

Traders-Talk.com Actual Position Poll

This will be a brief update.  Why?  Because in review of the data, there are only 36 people/traders that participate in the results…

Really?  It’s not even worth your time to look at it.  This sample size is not statistically significant.  Yet there are those out there that tout its significance – interesting to note that they’re also tied to the site which produces the data. 

Don’t fall for it.  You can get AAII data for free on the internet and it’s statistically significant.

For more charts, sign up for our free weekly newsletter here. 

Stock Market Barometer

Click the following link to learn more about Ian Mitchell and his trading of stocks, forex and futures.

Ian Mitchell

Frank Delaney IV Market Pulse

The S&P which I use as a general guide had a difficult week closed near its lows at approximately 1886.00. 

S&P Dec Contract

The market has most likely made its highs for the year. I suggested we were oversold last week. The spike in volatility this past week suggests that we are short term very oversold I wrote last week that we would most likely test the prior week’s lows after the jobs number came out. I suggested a traded in HAL from the long side. The market tested its lows rallied strongly Thursday. I felt my theory for the week was working well till the market fell apart and closed near its lows Friday. If you were long HAL you would have been stopped out. Capital preservation is very important in such a volatile environment. I believe the market will rally this week but we have probably seen the highs for the year. Technicals indicate a short term high volume blow off low. When I begin my market pulse letter in the next few weeks I will send daily observations on specific recommendations. I will keep positions limited to 3 to 5 positions. I think there will be many opportunities on the short side in the weeks to come.

 HAl Oct 10th 2014

I believe HAL is set up for a retracement higher to the 62 to 65 level in the next couple weeks. The precipitous fall in oil has taken all oil related stocks with it. When the market gets its footing early this week oils service companies will retrace their sharp declines over the last few weeks. Keep an eye on oil to stabilize and make a higher low this week. Discipline and patience will set up some great short opportunities over the next few months. Selling into this break at this point is inappropriate. Looking forward to helping you be your best as we move forward. Patience and discipline.

Have a good week.

Regards, Frank

Frank Delaney’s Market Pulse will soon be featured on www.stockbarometer.com

Good morning Traders,

From our weekend note to clients. 

Click here to get more of our indicators and sign up for our free weekly newsletter.

http://www.stockbarometer.com/freereports.aspx

Visit www.stockbarometer.com to learn more.

Individual traders In and Out of market

Nasdaq New Highs

Stepping back and looking at something we identified as this market continued higher – participation was decreasing.  Now each indicator is different in how it contributes to understanding market movements.  The New Highs is in the buy zone.   But it can remain at this level for some time.  It’s influence is minimized at this point. 

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CLICK HERE to Sign up for the Stock Barometer FREE Newsletter now!Each week we send out stock market timing charts from our IRG research and alerts from our different services for you to sample as well as offers for free trials. These are educational articles pertaining to trading, investing and timing the markets. We cover Stocks, ETFs, Index Market TIming and Options. There is no obligation. We hate SPAM as much as you do, so you can remove yourself from our list at anytime.Want More? Visit

In about a month or so, we’ll be adding Trader Frank Delaney IV to our team at Investment Research Group, Inc./Stock Barometer.   In the Interim, here’s a bit on his BIO as well as a market update from this veteran trader.

Bio: Frank A Delaney. Spending my entire career on Wall Street, I was an integral part of the success of two firms: Henderson Brothers Inc. and Bear Wagner, LLC. I was a Senior Managing Director at Henderson Brothers Inc and part of the four person management team that sold the firm in  the year 2000. As a Senior Managing Director and Partner at Bear Wagner LLC., I was a key producer, risk manager and proven producer of over a hundred million dollars. I provided direction for over 60 traders and 120 support staff. The key to my production was both technical and fundamental research. One of the keys to my success was being position agnostic to being long or short.   I was integral in bringing several firms public including Estee Lauder.  My trading skills have developed from many years of being mentored by the most talented technical analysts in the world.  With the use of technical analysis expanding into the use of candlesticks with the addition of looking at the fundamentals of both corporations with a view of the domestic and international economy, I have consistently outperformed the market  .That with an eye on the domestic and international  political,  social  and technological advancements give me a unique perspective on the markets. The markets themselves continue to evolve over the years. It is extremely important to understand how the markets work so you can navigate trading them. I believe my 25 years of experience can help individuals and groups become more successful.

Stock Market Update and proposed trade

The market as of the close of trading on Thursday September  2nd has had a 10 % correction off its highs for the year . Whether you are looking at the Dow the S&P or the Russell they basically all have corrected approximately 10%. They held Thursdays low on Friday and rallied approx 1%. The market is most likely short term oversold . We will probably test Thursdays low in the next 5 trading days. This is an opportunity for a couple of short term trades from the long side. If you look at the chart I have attached of Halliburton (HAL) you can see where it hammered on Thursday and rallied on Friday.

Halliburton HAL

I believe as long as HAL closes within 50 cents of Thursdays low you should buy it for a 4 to 10 day trade to the 66-68 range. Trailing stop should be entered when it breaks through 65 . The oil sector has been especially hard hit over the last six weeks . Halliburton provides infrastructure to the oil and gas sector whether the price of oil and gas goes up or down, so fundamentally HAL has a solid foundation.

The media has us believing the market rallied on the improvement of the jobless number falling to 5.9%.  In fact the reason for the improved job number are from the unemployed falling off the map as they have fallen off the roles after being unemployed for so long. As more people are not counted as they have stopped looking for jobs, obviously the jobs number will improve. As we get closer to November elections Republican groups will come out railing against the legitimacy of the employment numbers and there will be several calls of fraud at several census bureau districts about the unemployment numbers.

Social Political and International Commentary:

The Ebola scare will develop further but will not affect the US population or economy in any meaningful way.  The Ebola virus could and should have been addressed earlier by our executive and legislative branch of the US government. Continued lack of political courage and self promotion has hamstringed US political leadership. The enterovirus in children causing paralysis is a much bigger issue that needs to be addressed in the US.  

ISIS will continue to be in the news for quite a long time. The US and Allied Sorties have disrupted their routine, but they will continue to change their terror tactics to avoid detection from the air. Turkey will put “boots on the ground” as the group has threatened their borders. The US should use Navy Seal and Black Ops hit and run tactics to demoralize and yes terrorize the ISIS Group. The pressure should be relentless and constant.  This along with military advisors will diminish ISISs’ reach . A terrorist event is possible on the US homeland. Homeland Security Forces and infrastructure will have to be grown and kept on the constant alert for years to come. The US borders must be protected . It will take years but the effort should begin know. I am talking about a secure border not a closed border.

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Attn: All Investors

Are You Prepared to Survive the Upcoming BEAR Market?

 

Warning: The Upcoming Slump Could Destroy Your Portfolio

 

As investors, we’ve had it good for the past couple of years. The stock market has been on a constant upward trend. But as you’ve probably guessed: This trend is not sustainable.

Three signs indicate that, in the coming year, that upward trend in the market will soon shift downward. These three signs are:

  1. Increases in stock price makes stock more expensive – too expensive to continue price increases.
  2. Stock prices are outpacing actual company earnings.
  3. The Shiller PE Ratio is at crash-level numbers.

 

Many stock prices have reached new highs. We’ve seen such a phenomenon several times before. And they all happen right before a market crash.

According to the Shiller PE Ratio, today’s stock prices and earnings simply don’t match: Stock prices are, on average, nearly 30 times higher than real company earnings. A stable market’s PE ratio should be at around 15. We’re double that already.

All market crashes in the last 100 years have happened when the PE ratio was above 25.

You Must Prepare for the Upcoming BEAR Market Now, While You Still Have Time!

 

My gap-trading newsletter provides you with the road map you need to continually profit, in both market surges and market slumps. Every week, I’ll be sending you easy-to-understand gap-trading strategies and individual gap trades.

Regardless of your income, age, or investment strategy, my newsletter can help you make better decisions about the stocks you invest in.

In my Gap-Trading Newsletter, you’ll discover:

  • Why price gaps are becoming more frequent and why.
  • How to perform a gap analysis in 15 minutes.
  • How to predict the trend of an individual stock on a gap chart.
  • Where to optimally set your price limits.
  • How to set up a gap trade in the morning, without needing to follow the stock throughout the day.
  • Why gap-trading works equally well in bear markets as it does in bull markets.
  • How to grow your portfolio by several percent per month just trading gaps.
  • Why statistics ensure that you’ll make a profit trading gaps.
  • Why trading gaps is so easy (hint: You don’t need to time your trades perfectly).
  • How to easily determine the exit strategy for any gap trade.
  • Why trading gaps instead of trends minimizes risk.
  • Why the market bias is insignificant for gap trading.
  • And much, much more!

 

My Portfolio before Gap-Trading

 

Much like most investors, before I got into gap-trading, I was spending hours upon hours researching stocks. But those hours poured into research rarely meant anything. My investments ended up pretty much the same:

  • 1/3 went up.
  • 1/3 went down.
  • 1/3 went nowhere.

 

In the end, I spent all that time and money for barely any gain. When the market was good, I made profit overall. When the market was bad, I lost money. That’s how the stock market works: Market bias beats research. The overall direction of the market determines the overall direction of most stocks.

I was tired of being a victim of circumstance. So I began investigating academic journals and statistical studies on the stock market, looking for a strategy that could actually prove profitable.

Long story short, that strategy is gap-trading. The statistical research supports this strategy. And my personal experience in gap-trading backs up that research.

Gaps are more reliable than the news. They’re more reliable than that stock advisor on TV. And they are certainly more reliable than market trends.

I went through the trouble of researching gaps. And now I’m asking you to leverage my knowledge to play the stock market in a smarter, more predictable way.

It’s Easy

 

You don’t need to study gaps before you start trading. In my Gap-Trading Newsletter, I’ll send out weekly gap trades with step-by-step instructions on what to do. I’ll even send out daily updates so that you don’t have to pay attention to the stock. When I say sell, sell.

But if you do want to study gaps, you can do so in bite-size pieces through my newsletter. Every week, I’ll send you an educational article on trading gaps. After only a few months, you’ll know more about gap-trading than will most stock advisors.

How Long Does a Gap Trade Take?

 

Gap-trading comes in two forms: Long-term gap trading and swing trading. No matter your personal investment style – fast or slow – you can benefit from trading gaps.

  • Long-term gap trading: Certain types of gaps indicate a long-term trend that you can ride to profit.
  • Swing-trading on gaps: Other types of gaps tell you about short-term trends that will end at a specific price. You can use these gaps as indicators both for swing-trading direction and for knowing when to get out of the position.

 

But either way, you won’t need to spend more than 15 minutes per trade. Gap trading is very much a hands-off trading method – you don’t have to spend hours and days researching the stock and watching its ups and downs.

Why Start Now?

 

As stated earlier, the market’s about to switch directions. At a cusp like this, gap-trading is your best bet, because gaps aren’t affected by overall market conditions.

When the market hits its slump – or crash – if you’re trading gaps, you’ll be one of the few investors prepared. Imagine being the only person in your peer group who’s actually benefitting from a market slump. While everyone else at the office is complaining about how they lost thousands in the market, you’ll be talking about what you’re going to buy with your extra spending money.

Who Can Play Gaps?

 

Because there is no ideal persona for a gap-trader, it’s hard to say what kind of person is most suitable for gap-trading. So I’ll instead lay out the aspects that are not important for playing gaps:

  • Your income.
  • Your current bank account number.
  • Your age.
  • Your sex.
  • Your trading experience.
  • Your risk tolerance.
  • Your investment goals.

 

Gap trading can work for anyone, provided you play gaps in the right way. And if you read my Gap-Trading Newsletter, you will.

What You’ll Get

 

What you’ll receive when you subscribe to my Gap-Trading Newsletter is time-saving advice that doesn’t require you to spend any extra time in research. My newsletter works as follows:

  1. Every week, you’ll receive at least one gap trade alert.
  2. Every day, you’ll receive an update on this gap trade.
  3. When it’s time to get out of the position, you’ll get a message.
  4. In addition, every week you’ll also get an educational article on gap trading.
  5. Moreover, you’ll have direct access to me via email. And sometimes, I’ll even give you call if you have a question to discuss.

 

Sign Up Now

 

My past three gap trades have netted a 39% ROI. That is, for every $100 I invested, I got back $39. That’s $390 on a $1,000 investment; over $1,000 on a $3,000 investment. And all these trades were performed within one or two weeks, on average.

If you had been with me during those last three trades, you would have made the same amount. I’ll be making more trades, with or without you. It’s entirely up to you whether you’ll be with me in the future.

If you’re ready to get started, here’s what to do:

  1. Click on “subscribe” below.
  2. Pay $1.
  3. You will not be charged anything more during the first 30 days.
  4. If you choose to continue, you’ll only pay $27.95 for each following month.
  5. Follow my trades and you’ll make your subscription fees back many times over.

 

Who Should Not Subscribe?

 

If you’re just going to read my newsletter without trading, please do not subscribe. I’m offering this service to people who want to act on the information I’ve compiled and experimented with. I want my readers to be in a privileged group of investors who are profiting despite the upcoming market downturn, which is why I’m offering this now.

If you just want to be a spectator, please don’t waste your money. Turn on the financial news instead.

When Should You Subscribe?

 

This $1 trial offer will only be for a limited time. So the obvious time to subscribe is now. If you wait too long, I cannot offer this newsletter to you at the $1 price – I’m not the one who controls the subscription fee!

Stockbarometer.com is only offering my newsletter at this greatly reduced price as a favor to me. I want more readers; they want more money. That’s a contradiction that, much like the market conditions described at the beginning of this webpage, cannot last long.

Subscribe now or be kicking yourself later.

FAQ

What Do I Get?

 

  • Weekly trade alerts
  • Daily updates
  • Sell alerts
  • Weekly educational articles
  • My personal contact information – Damon@stockbarometer.com
  • Occasional call-ins

 

Why Gap Trading?

 

  • It’s unaffected by market bias.
  • You won’t be hit by the upcoming market slump/crash.
  • Easy to predict.
  • Frequently appear.
  • Highly profitable.
  • Consistent.

 

How Much Time Will I Need to Spend?

 

Approximately 15 minutes per trade.

How Will I Know When to Exit

 

  1. Each trade will be accompanied with a limit price.
  2. I’ll also send you an email when it’s time to exit.

 

How Much Does This Cost

 

  1. $1 for the first month.
  2. $27.95 for each month after (this price will increase in the future, except for those of you who “lock in” at this price now).

 

Will This Information Be Made Publically Available Elsewhere?

 

  1. Individual trades: No. This is subscriber-exclusive information.
  2. Educational articles: Some educational articles will be republished on other websites and books. However, subscribers will see them first.

 

Can I Follow Your Advice for Stocks AND Options?

 

Yes. This newsletter is mainly focused on stocks, but you can play options the same way. If you have any specific questions about how to apply my trading advice to options, please email me.

How Risky Is This?

 

Trading gaps is one of the least risky trading methods simply because gaps are consistent in their patterns. Regardless, risk is always present, but I will help you limit risk by giving you exit strategies in case the trade doesn’t go the way we want it. You’ll also receive an “exit alert” email if we need to exit our position early.

1391840309

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Good morning Traders,

I don’t often use the word crash when talking about the markets, but we do
have a popular indicator that’s been flashing a signal for a couple days
now.  Let’s walk through it here.

There are 3 components.  First is a market that’s trending higher (10
day is on an uptrend).  Second is the number of new lows rising above a key
threshold.  And third is the McClellan Oscillator below zero.  The
first two are shown in the chart below:

Nasdaq Crash Potential

And the third is here:

Nasdaq McLellan

Now the above charts are for the Nasdaq.  What about the NYSE?

Nyse Crash

And the third component:

Nyse McLellan

Ok, so as the charts say – this condition suggests crash potential for the
next 30 days or so.  And this indicator is also popular for giving false
signals.  I included it as part of my research several years ago, but feel
it’s a good indicator to watch for certain things – like the # of new lows
accelerating as the market makes new highs.  That suggests something’s
wrong with the market or there’s an underlying shift in the markets going on
that can translate to weaker stock prices.

Looking back at the last significant move lower in the market for a repeating
pattern (remember, we’re trying to identify what algorithms are driving the
market - and I believe institutions are trading the stock bond relationship
very heavily:

spy bonds rsi

The 2011 drop came hard and fast.  If you didn’t react quickly, you
missed most of the move and then had to wait a couple months as the market tried
to hammer out a bottom.

Note – the charts above are part of our research indicators – over 300
popular and proprietary indicators that we use to build formulas to give us
a timing advantage in the market.

I also want to give you a heads up to some changes here.  The potential
move in the markets could be very bearish, so I’m working to bring in some
traders who an help you profit from the move.  First up is Damon Verial,
who’s heading up the Price Gap Option TraderYou
can try his service for $1 by clicking here and using discount code
PGO1

We’re also bringing in a futures and forex trader who’s also agreed to write
a stock trading service featuring his unique skills to help protect us and help
us profit from the coming decline, whether or not it develops soon, or next year
when the fed starts raising rates (though I expect the market move to
precede the event).

And not to mention Gregory Clay, who’s only added to his gains since
bringing him on several months ago – he still hasn’t posted a loss! 
His weekly income credit spreads newsletter is getting some
great press.  Here are the links if you’re interested:

Weekly
Income Credit Spreads
$26.95 Gregory
Clay’s Option Newsletter – Weekly Income Credit Spreads
WIC1

 

So with all going on in the market, we’ll do what we can to give you the 1)
fact based research and 2) profitable advice that will help you profit or at
least protect your assets from downside by diversification and proper risk
management of trades.

Regards,

www.stockbarometer.com

September is holding true to form…

Visit www.stockbarometer.com to subscribe.

 

Market Summary

The prospect of rising interest rates sent the stock
market to its first weekly loss since early August. Contributing to investors’
skepticism was a report showing retail sales in August rose more than economists
had forecast. That reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could start
hiking interest rates sooner than expected. All the major equity indexes are in
positive territory for the year. Most analysts expect these gains to hold up
into year end, even there might be a pause or slight pullback along the
way.

 

 

 

Market Outlook

According to the Stock Trader Almanac Monday of September
options expiration week is bullish for DJIA and S&P 500 although major
shellacking’s in 2001 and 2008 pull the day’s average gain since 1982 negative.
NASDAQ’s record is much weaker on Monday, declining 20 times in 32 years. Moving
forward to September option expiration day, it is generally bullish and has
improved recently with DJIA up eight of the past ten years with an average gain
of 0.5%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have nearly identical recent track records.
Full-week performance has a somewhat spotty record over the last ten years for
DJIA, up six and down four. However, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better,
both have gained in nine of the past eleven years. 

 

We feel compelled to regurgitate analysis
from the past few weeks because it is playing out as advertised “…It has been reported that since 1950,
September is the worst performing month of the year for the major stock indexes,
a majority of analysts feel the August lows will maintain as support for the
remainder of the year…Don’t be surprised if September starts strong as it has in
thirteen of the last nineteen years. But the market begins to fade as money
managers’ start selling off losers and repositioning assets for the end of the
third quarter window dressing…”
As we said, September
started strong with the major indexes reaching record highs, but they started
selling off finishing with a weekly loss for the first time in over a month.
Recent market highs were generated primarily on the strength high flying
biotechnology shares. As displayed in the updated quarter-to-date chart below,
other than technology and maybe financials, other market sectors are starting to
struggle. It is reasonable to expect market weakness heading into upcoming
earnings season. Notice declines were led by utility companies and other stocks
that pay high dividends. Those stocks have been in favor this year as investors
hunt for other sources of income because bond yields have been
low.

 

 

 

We also said “…We expect volatility to increase over the
next two months from the current historical lows including another price
pullback…”
In the 2-hour Volatility Index (VIX) chart
below you can see the index started trending higher in September with higher
highs and higher lows. Look for this trend to continue over the next week or
two.

 

 

 

Recently we commented “… the chart is signaling a pause might be
imminent as the price is at an overbought level where it usually pulls back.
Also noted is upward momentum is slowing down which supports the contention the
trend might be starting to change… stock prices appear to be
consolidating…Expect stock prices to stall and maybe even pullback later in the
month…”
The updated chart confirms our previous analysis
as a range-bound trend is now confirmed with the down days starting to show the
strongest momentum. Price consolidation should continue over the next few
weeks.

 

 

 

 

Previous analysis stated “… after spending the month of August moving
up in tandem with equities, treasuries have been selling off in September in
response to a potential rise in rates…”
Supporting the
fall in treasuries is the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has now climbed for
seven straight days with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rising from 2.34
percent at the start of the month and is trading at its highest level since
early July. Below is chart that compares the U.S. dollar to treasuries and gold.
As evidenced in the chart, the dollar has risen to its recent highs and this has
contributed to slumping commodity prices such as energy, treasuries and precious
metals. Bearish commodity trades are working out well, but it is wise to avoid
long positions in these assets until the trend changes.

 

 

 

As seen in the chart below, the S&P 500 index
continues in a long term uptrend while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains
contained near record lows.

 

 

 

The American Association of Individual
Investor Survey (AAII) survey bullish sentiment number dropped from a nine month
high established a few weeks ago. As we reported last week “…the market is due for a pause. The
relatively low bearish number confirms there are limited ‘sellers’ to sustain a
correction at this point…”
The current AAII results are
close to historical norms, this falls in line with our analysis indicating the
overall market is in a ‘lull’ heading to earning season.

 

 

 

 

Second-quarter National Association of Active Investment
Managers (NAAIM) exposure index averaged 81.64%, last week is was 82.49%, and
the current week’s exposure is 63.63%. Notice in the chart displayed below, the
exposure index had been trending higher over past month but it crashed this
week. Money managers pulled funds out of the market this past week by selling
off shares. The next question is how long will money managers remain on the
sidelines?

 

 

 

 

 

Trading Strategy

Weekly Income Credit Spreads

Easy Money Options Income

The Stock Traders’ Almanac says that historically
speaking September weakness has been a great time to load up on stocks ahead of
the “Best Six Months” of the year, November to April and an even better time in
midterm years ahead of the best two consecutive quarter span of the
four-year-presidential-election cycle. The market’s sweet spot of the
Four-Year Cycle begins in the fourth quarter of the midterm year. The best
two-quarter span runs from the fourth quarter of the midterm year through the
first quarter of the pre-election year, averaging 15.3% for the Dow, 16.0% for
the S&P 500 and an amazing 23.3% for NASDAQ. Pre-election Q2 is smoking too,
the third best quarter of the cycle, creating a three quarter sweet spot from
midterm Q4 to pre-election Q2. Appling these average gains to yesterday’s
closing prices puts DJIA at 19675, S&P 500 at 2315 and NASDAQ at 5656 at the
end of Q1 next year. But, considering the markets recent run and the specter of
rising interest rates, a mid- to high-single-digit advance is probably more
likely between now and the second quarter of 2015. A recent graphic is
worth repeating

 

 

 

In the updated chart below you can see the technology and
healthcare S&P sectors have been holding up the equity market over the past
90 days. Most of the other sectors are either negative or barely positive over
this time period. When the market begins its next bullish leg higher expect
healthcare and technology sectors to lead.

 

 

 

Regards,

 

Gregory Clay

Option Strategist

Info@StockBarometer.com

www.stockbarometer.com