The below chart represents ETF money flow. A significant change that is taking place in the financial markets is the shift of money into ETFs and the money leaving equity funds. This is significantly strong, but on a contrarian basis, it can be bearish. Visit our Facebook page below to see our Roc view. Access all this data on our website below.

etf money flow

This is one of our 300 market timing indicators to help traders and investors identify potential buy and sell points.

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The stock market is all about hope and fear.  Buying and Selling.  Certainty and uncertainty.

As an election approaches, you always have the potential that an administration can change.  This creates uncertainty.  Uncertainty creates pause.

In the case of the Trump election, there was certainty that he wasn’t going to win.  There was certainty that the party would remain in office and the only change would be new representation from that party.

Then along comes a Black Swan.

A Black Swan is when something happens that no one sees coming that has a great impact on our lives and that in hindsight, people tend to say they say it coming.  A Black Swan can be good or bad.  It can be as big as the Internet, or as dark as the housing collapse.  Point is, Donald Trump, the dictator of the Celebrity Apprentice, winning the presidency, is a Black Swan.  And we’re yet to see the full impact of his bring president, but it’s beginning to unfold in front of us.  So stay tuned.  This market will never be the same.

Where are we now?

Sentiment is about as bullish as we at www.stockbarometer.com have seen in some time.  If you watch financial news, the interpretation of his presidency is SO bullish, that it’s hard to find a negative news story.  That’s concerning.

The best way to show this is through a sentiment indicator.

Citigroup Panic Euphoria Model

As the market corrected going into the election, especially as Trump gained in the polls, you saw a traditional shift of certainty to uncertainty.  Then when the election results were in, and the world was shocked, the investors took over.  The net impact to the stock market was bullish because of the sectors that had been beat down over the past 8 years were now going to improve.  And the net impact of them improving will be good for the whole economy.

The next two weeks will be critical.  We have an options expiration, which tends to align with reversals and we also have an inauguration.  There is a ‘sell the inauguration’ trade theme developing.  And it may stick, given the level of hope and complacency we’re seeing.   Remember the Investor Psychology Cycle, and let me ask you – where do you think we are…

Investor Psychology Cycle

I’d say we’re somewhere between excitement and greed/euphoria.  Extrapolate this indicator over the Citibank indicator, and you get a pretty good idea why.

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The signal from the Citigroup Panic Euphoria Model – is potentially showing bearish activity for 2017. Subscribe to the Daily Stock Barometer (links below) to find out when to sell the stock market – AND access this data!

citigroup panic euphoria model

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The comment of Chinese Financial market

China has two major stock indices: Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index. They are like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average which can show the performance of Chinese stock market.

First of all, let’s understand several features about Chinese stock market. In my opinion, this market is more irrational than American stock markets. The reason is that this is a young market which lasts for less than 40 years. We can imagine that there are many pitfalls for this developing market. Secondly, Chinese market doesn’t have enough derivatives to trade. For example, there is no option market in China and you cannot find any other derivatives in China except futures. And the second feature can be a big problem for investors because when stock market starts to become unstable, there is no derivatives to hedge your position. The best way is selling all the stocks. Thirdly, the Chinese government has restrictions on foreigners to invest in Chinese financial markets. You may find some problems when you want to open a stock account in Chinese local broker companies. But foreigners still can find a way to invest in Chinese market directly. Fourthly, there are several kinds of participants in Chinese stock market, such as government, stated-own business, common people, financial organizations and companies and foreign investors. Among them, government owns stated-own corporations and influences market greatly. Stated-owned corporations count in stock market because all stated-owned corporations are giants and significant to their industries in China. Foreign investors and common individual investors only occupy a small part of the market.

The situation of Chinese stock market

After several crashes from June 2015, Shanghai Composite Index decreased from 5178 to 3096. We can see it from the graph:

Advice on Chinese Stock Market

The volume shrank more than a half compared to that in June 2015. One year ago, people eagerly put their money into market because at that period, everyone could make money no matter what people bought. But right now, that is not the case anymore. The bubble burst and people calmed down. Now they try to find a chance to escape from market. That is attitude from individual investors.

Now, the GDP Annual Growth rate in China decreased to 6.5%. The government wants to spur economy because the data says China cannot develop as fast as it used to be. One method that government is doing is letting more companies issue IPO to gain funds. Now more than 600 companies wait to issue their IPO. At the same time, government encourages companies to collect funds in stock markets and issues many policies to loosen IPO requirements. To put it shortly, government encourages IPO in order to have a higher growth rate in GDP.

Next let’s check the foreign investors’ attitudes. Majority of foreign investors in Chinese stock market are financial corporations, such as UBS AG, JP Morgan and Citi group. They prefer the stated-owned corporations and Chinese Baijiu industries in Chinese market to small caps or high-tech companies. I think that the reason is that those stated owned corporations have a well-paid dividend and are backed by government. Moreover, American has better small caps and high-tech companies.

The last one is financial organizations and companies. Because the majority of Chinese financial corporations are stated-owned, they will follow government’s policies and instructions. If we can understand government’s will, we can easily predict those financial companies’ actions.

The Envision of market

For now the market is steady and it is in Ice age. In the short term, those indices will not go up or go down. The best way to make money is to pick up the potential individual stock. The reason that market is frozen is that common people want to escape from stock markets at a fair price but government wants to finance companies in order to maintain the growth rate of GDP. This dilemma makes stock market frozen. The proof is that although government issues many positive policies to support stock markets, people still have no interest and keep transaction volume low. And as far as I am concerned, this situation will last for a long time.

Trading advice

The most profitable opportunity in Chinese stock market now is IPO. A company’s stock price, on its debut in market, will rise 44% in the first day. Because of daily fluctuation limit, 10% fluctuation at most in the next trading days, in next several days, this company’s stock price will increase 10% per day. I am pretty sure that if you can win a bid for IPO, you will get greater than 100% return rate. The method to decide who win the bid for IPO is like a free lottery. If you win a bid, you definitely make a profit. If you do not win a bid, you will lose nothing. It is like an arbitrage. But it has drawbacks. All the investors in China know this method and all investors want to win a bid for IPO. Thus for every individual investor, the chance to win a bid is tiny.

Another opportunity is special treatment stocks (ST). Special treatment stocks are the companies that lost money for three years. If we grade them, they will have a grade below BB. Now it is the time for companies to prepare to show their balance sheets. Some special treatment stocks may made profits in this year and get rid of the name special treatment or ST. Investors will have a wonderful expectation on those companies and would like to buy their stocks. Those lucky companies’ stock prices will rocket to sky. Now we should do some researches about those potential special treatment companies and buy their shares as soon as possible. When their balance sheets go public, we can know whether those companies make profits and decide whether to keep or dump those stocks.

The third opportunity is the companies that behave well, pay well-dividends and split their shares. Chinese like the companies that split their shares very much. That strange fancy is from a weird idea that splitting shares is a sign of potential. We can pick up some potential companies, buy their stocks and keep them until their balance sheets go public.

Comment of GXC

Here is the graph for GXC from June 2015. We can compare this graph to Shanghai Composite Index above.

advice on chinese stock market

chinese stock market advice

Generally, GXC follows the similar pattern to Shanghai Composite Index, which means that GXC reflects the performance of Chinese stocks market. But this also reflects that GXC only invests the large companies in China. From the website, we can find that GXC puts money in Tecent, Alibaba, China Construction Bank Corp, Bank of China Ltd and so on. They are large corporations in China.

But here I want to point out that the combination of EXC is from several different stock markets. For example, Bank of China Ltd H is from Hong Kong market and Alibaba Group is in US market. And here is the problem. Bank of China Ltd is listed both in Hong Kong and China main land. The stock prices in those two markets do not behave in the same way. For example, they have different prices and pay the different dividends.

What I want to comment is that GXC reflects the behaviors of Chinese large corporations. But GXC’s choices of stocks don’t represent the performance of Chinese stock markets because the majority of those stocks are not listed in Chinese mainland stock markets.

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In 2017, as Investment Research Group, Inc. d/b/a www.stockbarometer.com expands its borders, we will be launching a new service called Stock Barometer Australia. Visit our site to start up.  Below is their weekly commentary:

Stock Barometer Australia Commentary week ending 12/23/16

ASX 200
We are seeing signs which warn of a potential down move. We are still in BUY mode, but if we close below 5510 then go to cash.

ASX

 

EWA
We are in cash here. This one is a little tricky as we had the dividend this week, but we exited immediately after this and remain in cash. With the dividend this trade was either a very small loss or gain depending on when one entered.

EWA

IWM
We remain on a SELL signal, and this past week saw the predicted retest of highs – and this appears to be setting up bearishly. We need a break below the 12/14 lows to confirm this.

IWM

DBA
This past week we had a buy signal then due to a lack of follow through we immediately sold (to cash in our case).
In this case it always seems hard to exit, after all, why not hold on and see what happens – bad idea. The close below the Monday lows on Friday is showing we did the right thing here.

dba

NCM
We are now on a BUY signal on the daily system having reached this on Thursday. The weekly system is a way off triggering, but we would advise taking profits on a short position if you are still in one. This represents a 13% gain.

NCM

SGG
We are still on a SELL signal here.

sgg

JJC
Further downside this past week as we are still not yet at a buy point. As we see in the chart below however we are sitting at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. It is no surprise to see a halt to the slide here. We could yet make a higher low and move higher, so stay tuned…

jcc

CBA
CBA has moved up this past week, and our stop has followed. We are still on a BUY here but will move to a sell with a close below 82 (marked in purple). This one has been frustrating but this trade will almost certainly result in a gain (barring a black swan event…)

cba

BHP
We are still on a SELL signal and are now at potential support, see white line after more falls this week. However, we could still see a move further to the yellow support line.

bhp

AUDNZD
We did not see the breakout this week and went to a SELL position during the week, for minimal loss or gain. On Friday we saw further downside.

audnzd

USO (or OIL)
We are still on a SELL signal and ended the week as we started pretty much.

uso oil

TLS
We went to cash this week for a small loss. Stay that way as we see which way this one will move. We believe there is a downside bias but lets wait for the stock to indicate the direction.

tls

GLD
We remain on a SELL with gold. The same arguments as last week prevail.

gld gold

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In 2017, Investment Research Group, Inc. (d/b/a www.stockbarometer.com) is breaking down boundaries and opening offices in 3 new countries, India, China and Australia.

India’s growth dwarfs the majority of its global peers and India’s economic growth rate, projected by various agencies and the Indian Finance Ministry for 2016-2017, ranges between 7.4 and 7.75 per cent.

India’s resilience to global macro factors can be attributed to its young demographic base and an economy driven primarily by domestic consumption. Every month over 1 million Indians reach the age of 18 and 56 per cent of its population is below 30 years of age and 65 per cent is below 35 years of age.

The burgeoning working age population and consumption boom gives India a competitive edge over countries that are ageing fast. These favorable dynamics, combined with better economic management & continuing structural reforms by the Modi Government, are attracting investors from across the world.

The Bombay Stock Exchange is the oldest in Asia with over 5,500 listed companies from diverse sectors. This offers global investors the diversity they cannot find on many of the world’s leading stock exchanges.

First Recommendation

PNB Gilts Ltd​[BSE Code: 53​2366, NSE Code: ​PNBGILTS​]​. ​PNB Gilts​ Ltd​ ​is a small cap company with market capital of ​764​ crores and ​is the only listed primary dealer of government securities.

Company Background:

PNB Gilts Ltd is a leading primary dealer in the Government Securities Market. The company undertakes more than 90% of their operations in Government Securities. The range of product and services offered by the company includes, Treasury Bills, Central Government Dated Securities, State Government Securities, PSU Bonds, Inter-Corporate Deposits, CSGL accounts, Money market instruments etc. In addition, they also offer advisory services to our clients to manage the government securities portfolio. The company is a subsidiary of Punjab National Bank.

In 1996 Reserve Bank had introduced the system of Primary Dealers with a view to strengthen the institutional infrastructure of government securities market. Six entities were granted licenses of which PNB Gilts was one. The company was established as a wholly owned subsidiary of Punjab National Bank with an initial paid up capital of Rs 50 crore. The net-worth of the company has increased from Rs 50 crore to Rs 764 crore. It is the only listed primary dealer in India and the public shareholding in company is 25.93 percent.

75% stake in the company is owned by PNB and 25% is the only floating stock. The book value of the company is Rs 45.62. PNB Gilts is the one of the few financial services stock which is available at less than the book value.

​​ ​Recent Developments​:

i) India’s benchmark 10-year bond yields have dived 36 basis points to 6.44 percent, a 7-1/2 year low – 18th Nov 2016

A surprise move by the Indian government to withdraw over 80 percent of the country’s currency in circulation has sparked a rally in bonds that could extend into late December as markets bet on a rate cut as soon as next month.

Earlier the rate cut by RBI was expected in February, but now expectation of a rate cut in December is building up given that the demonetisation move is fiscal and inflation positive. The near term hit to the economy has fed expectations of a rate cut in December, helping stoke the rally in Indian debt.

Inflation already eased to 4.20 percent in October, undershooting the RBI’s 5 percent target by March. Considering lower inflation and demonetisation impact, RBI is expected to cut rates by 50 basis points by early 2017, compared to previous expectation for 25 basis points.

India’s benchmark 10-year bond yields have dived 36 basis points to 6.44 percent, a 7-1/2 year low, since Modi’s banknotes announcement. That contrasted with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to an 11-1/2-month high on the view Trump’s policies will prove reflationary and lead to faster-than-expected Federal Reserve rate increases.

Short-term rates have also slumped, with bulk deposit rates down by as much as 42 basis points, reinforcing the view that the Reserve Bank of India may cut the repo rate in December, instead of earlier expectations for a cut in February or April.

ii) PNB Gilts shareholders raise borrowing limit to Rs 7000 Crores – 17th Sept 2016

PNB Gilts shareholders have approved a special resolution to enable the board to raise up to Rs 7,000 crore against earlier borrowing limit of Rs 5,000 crore.

PNB Gilt’s current book is at Rs 4500 crore and the company has sufficient margins to increase the book size if opportunities come.

The proposal was approved by the shareholders through voting in favour of it in the annual general meeting of the company held on 17th Sept 2016​. It was proposed that the borrowing powers of the Board be raised to Rs 7,000 crore in excess of the aggregate of paid-up share capital and free reserves of the company, apart from temporary loans obtained in ordinary course of business.

Earlier on September 12, 2013, shareholder of the Company at their 18th Annual General Meeting passed the special resolution enabling the Board of Directors to borrow money up to Rs 5000 crore in excess of the aggregate of paid-up share capital and free reserves of the Company, apart from temporary loans obtained in ordinary course of business. Since Sept 2013, the borrowing limit was not changed.

​​ Financial Performance ​:

​PNB Gilts standalone net profit rises 183.05% in the September 2016 quarter

Net profit of PNB Gilts rose 183.05% to Rs 70.14 crore in the quarter ended September 2016 as against Rs 24.78 crore during the previous quarter ended September 2015. Sales rose 69.73% to Rs 175.25 crore in the quarter ended September 2016 as against Rs 103.25 crore during the previous quarter ended September 2015.

PNB Gilts reports standalone net profit of Rs 19.37 crore in the June 2016 quarter

Net profit of PNB Gilts reported to Rs 19.37 crore in the quarter ended June 2016 as against net loss of Rs 3.24 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2015. Sales rose 38.23% to Rs 97.92 crore in the quarter ended June 2016 as against Rs 70.84 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2015.​

Saral Gyan Recommendation:

i) The recent announcement of banning Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 8, 2016 will have certain repercussions in the banking and financial space. One of the impact could be that due to inflow of currencies into the system, Banks will have lot of deposits, there are few lending opportunities now and hence they could end up buying more and more of G-secs. This could lead to a fall in G-Sec rates, and PNB Gilts will be the direct beneficiary.

ii) On the back of a good monsoon and reduction in the cash / money supply in the system (due to the de-monetization event) CPI inflation numbers are expected to trend downwards in the next 1-2 quarters. This is due to a combination of demand being negatively affected and rural spending getting affected more. We believe there will significant reduction in the money supply in the economy and both CPI and WPI Inflation will start reducing in the coming one to two quarters. This in turn will give enough legroom to RBI to further reduce interest rates. It is expected that RBI may be in a position to reduce the repo rate (currently at 6.25%) by around 50 to 75 bps over the next 2 quarters. (1bp = 1/100 of 1 percent) which will give more growth opportunities to PNB Gilts going forward.

iii) The historical low of 10 year government bond yield was in January 2009 when it was quoted at 5.41 percent. This was in the aftermath of the late 2008 global market crisis. Hence even though the current levels of bond yield at 6.5% seem very low, they are still higher than the lows seen in 2009. Moreover, globally interest rates are at historical lows with many countries have 0 percent interest rates and some like Japan, Sweden, Switzerland are experimenting with negative interest rates. In such a scenario interest rates in India will also have to eventually decline.

iv) Whenever there is a selloff in global/local equity markets, investors rush to safe havens like G-sec and Gold. In such a scenario, due to high demand, the G-sec prices rise and yields fall. These developments will be positive for the bond market and the benchmark 10-year government bond yields have already started falling in Nov’16. Currently the 10 year bond is hovering around 6.5% levels and is expected to reduce further. Moreover, Indian banks will continue buying government debt as the outlook for public finances and inflation improves, offering them a better return than earnings from loans.

v) As more and more individuals head to banks to deposit their old currency, liquidity is expected to improve significantly and CASA balances of banks to show sharp rise. As against this rise in deposits, there will be few opportunities for banks to lend as credit demand is likely to remain muted for the next couple of quarters. Companies are by and large, underutilizing existing capacity, and consumer spending has reduced. Given this, a lot of money will chase government securities, thereby bringing down yield which will act as a catalyst in revenue growth and profitability of PNB Gilts.

vi) The company has registered sales CAGR of 25.4% and profit CAGR of 2.5% with ROE of 8.3% over last 5 years. The profit growth of PNB Gilts was muted mainly due to not so favourable conditions for G-sec market. However, considering declining interest rate cycle which is expected to continue over next 12 months with further drop in G-sec yields, we believe PNB Gilts will perform much better in coming quarters. PNB Gilts is the only listed player which will benefits out of the active trading that is likely to happen as banks are flush with cash and likely to park it with mutual funds, liquid funds and G-Sec funds.

vii) As of Sept’16, promoter’s shareholding in the company is at 74.07% without any change in holding since March 2004. The company has not pledged any shares, Institution shareholding in the company is at 1.46%.

viii) Management has rewarded shareholders by paying regular dividend since 2008 and also issued bonus share in ratio of 1:3 in 2013. The company has paid total dividend of Rs. 1.10 for FY15-16 and dividend yield at current share price is 2.6%. The company is maintaining healthy dividend payout of 34.2%.

ix) As per our estimates, PNB Gilts can deliver PAT of 198 crores for full financial year 2017-18, annualized EPS of Rs 11 with forward P/E ratio of 3.9X for FY16-17. Company’s valuation looks attractive considering strong growth prospects arising with lower interest rate cycle and increase in dividend yield with higher dividend payout expected for FY16-17.

x) On equity of Rs. 180.01 crore, the estimated annualized EPS for FY16-17 works out to Rs. 11 and the Book Value per share is Rs. 45.62. At current market price of Rs. 42.45, stock price to book value is 0.93.

Considering the fact that ideal conditions are getting evolved for a downtrend in interest rates over next 12 months which creates favourable conditions for a short-to medium term G-Sec and bond market, PNB Gilts is well placed to capitalize on trading and investment opportunities, it is recommended to “Buy” PNB Gilts Ltd at current market price of Rs. 42.45 for a target of 85 in six months timeframe
​ Buying Strategy:

​ 7​ ​5​ % at current market price of ​​42​ . ​​ 45​ ​ ​
​ 25​ % at price range of ​ ​ ​ ​35​ – ​ ​​38 ​ ​ (in case of correction in stock price in near term)

Gautam Baid

Gautam Baid, CFA, MBA,MS Finance, is the Portfolio Manager, Global Equities with Summit Global Investments based out of Bountiful, Utah. He is an experienced value investor with a passion for learning, reading & investing and a keen interest in behavioral finance. He has served for c.7 years at the Mumbai, London and Hong Kong offices of bulge bracket banks like Citigroup and Deutsche Bank where he received multiple promotions and served as a Supervisor of the Healthcare Banking team in his most recent designation within Deutsche Bank. In September 2016, Gautam’s passion, hard work & dedication towards the investing profession was formally recognized when he received a personal invitation to attend “Latticework 2016” at Harvard Club of New York – a confluence of 100 emerging value investors from across the world personally handpicked by Shai Dardashti and John Mihaljevic of the Manual of Ideas. At this event, Gautam received live training in value investing principles from investing legends like Howard Marks, Thomas Russo, Mohnish Pabrai and Guy Spier among many others. Gautam is fluent in both English and Hindi and has been actively investing in the Indian equity markets for the last 10 years. The family office portfolios of Indian stocks which he has been managing has delivered more than 120% returns on an average after all taxes & expenses since January 2014

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The signal from the ECRI – Economic Cycle Research Institute – is potentially showing bearish activity for 2017.  Subscribe to the Daily Stock Barometer (links below) to find out when to sell the stock market!

ECRI

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As the markets set up for a positive looking year end, this weekend’s update on the Citigroup Panic Euphoria Index is raising more caution:

citigroup panic euphoria index

Interpreting the citigroup panic euphoria index requires some subjectivity as the key is when it crosses below its moving average and gives a signal.  Consolidations can occur which delay the signal.  But at the end of the day, the buy signal is getting long in the tooth.  Raise your stops and get ready to position short.

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The relationship between stocks and bonds is key to interpreting and predicting future price action.   The view is that the bond market is so much larger than the stock market, that money flowing in and out of bonds causes movement in other vehicles, such as stocks.

Take a look at the following momentum chart of the QQQ versus Bonds (in the form of TLT) :

QQQ Bonds TLT RSI

What you can see is initial peaks in the relative action cause markets to pause.  The second peak – whether it’s higher or lower, tells you if momentum is shifting.

Where are we now?  We’ve had our initial peak in Stocks bouncing relative to Bonds and we’re working on the second peak.  We at www.stockbarometer.com expect a bearish divergence to set up the next move lower in the markets.  Bonds will bounce, gold will bounce and risky assets will fall.  But this action will ultimately set up the next best buying opportunity for the stock market!  So stay tuned!

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Traders be on the look out for a top forming this week. This is one of our 300 market timing indicators to help traders and investors identify potential buy and sell points.

Nyse Crash Hindenberg Omen

For the above signal from the Hindenberg Omen to be valid, we need to see the McLellan Oscillator to be negative…it is:

McLellan Oscillator

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