Good morning traders,

I apologize for not updating recently.  I’ve been busy with some other projects.  I want to take a moment to share where we are…

We had been calling for a 11/15 stock market low and it came in right on time.  We remain positioned long.  And while the easiest part of this rally may be over, I still don’t think it’s done.

Why an 11/15 low?  Well, as you know I’ve spent the last 12 years building stock market models and following various stock market cycles.  11/15 was a 9 month cycle low per our cycles/seasonaity chart:

We’re still bullish into 12/17 and possibly beyond, but we’ll have a few tests along the way.  Why 12/17?

Here’s a chart I shared with over 300 hedge funds in March of last year…  It’s my stock market forecast for 2012, that I put together back in 2011…

Without getting into too much detail about the derivation of this chart, we use it to determine our potential key reversal dates.  I’ve been publishing this for over a decade, and sometimes these dates are so accurate, it’s worth paying attention to.  And periodically you have a year like this one, where if you followed the model, you’d be very wealthy…

It too was calling for a 11/15 key reversal date.  Given the market action going into that date, we saw confluence in our call for a 9 month cycle low around 11/15.

Thinking back to the end of last year, I was speaking at the World Money Show in Chicago telling everyone in a very Cramer-esk way, to buy, buy, buy…  That’s where I was 3 weeks ago.

So what about 2013?

I use the month of December to start building my models for the next year.  And this year is no different.  As early as today I’ll start the work it takes and by the end of the month, I’ll have digested the data (subconsciously) and be able to put together my model.

And given the accuracy of my work in 2012, I expect a little more attention this year.

If you’d like to see my work, I give it to all my clients.  Feel free to visit my site at www.stockbarometer.com and sign up for the daily stock barometer, where I review my research daily and give you a few of the 300 or so models that are giving a reversal signal.

Remember, you financial success is not about making one BIG investment decision, it’s the sum of hundreds of smaller correct decisions that builds a good financial base and will keep you heading in the right direction.  My goal has always been to help more people, make better decisions with their money…0

Again, feel free to visit my site, www.stockbarometer.com and sign up to any of my services and you’ll get access to my research.

Here’s the chart I referenced in this morning’s advisory:

Click on the image to view it full size.

Well, here’s a clue…

Interested in learning more?  Click here.

As someone who for the last decade has built trading systems and advised over 20,000 people (a week) on stock market timing signals, our goal is to bring an agorithmic view on the markets to individuals.

Most people get their views on the stock market from news that they hear on TV or some internet portal.  This issue with this is that news doesn’t drive the market.  News satisfies our brain’s need for reason.  Reason resolves uncertainty, which is a fear.  It doesn’t matter than the reasoning is right.  What matters is that the average investor believes it is.

So what’s this have to do with stock market timing signals?  Very simply, we are not wired to be good market timers.  Our brains are wired to make us feel good or certain about a certain outcome.

One solution is math and numbers.  But those too are also subject to subjective interpretation.  Trust me, two people can look at the same set of figures and reach two different conclusions.   I spent 22 years in commercial insurance, where numbers drove everything – and saw this every day.

Throw in the fact that the world is a much more random place than most of the population can comprehend, and then you wonder why would anyone want to time the stock market…  I ask myself that every day

Because periodically, ineffiencies in how money is positioned in the market, aligns with events in the market place, and causes dramatic moves.  I’m not talking about a black swan type event.  For the odds of catching a black swan type of event are so low, that you could design a system to make you very wealthy in the event we get one, however, odds are you’ll give up on the strategy because the pay off could come in several years, and even thought the payoff would result in a decade worth of profits, it’s not how we’re wired to receive rewards.

When I talk about how we’re wired, it’s as much focusing on how our brains responds to rewards, inline with how our primary motivating factors like the desire to obtain pleasure and the stronger need to avoid pain motivate 99% of all our actions.  Studies have shown that we’ll do much more to avoid pain, than to obtain pleasure.  If you’re not sure what I mean, watch a commercial sometime – every good marketing person plays on giving people pleasure, or helping them avoid some pain…

Now back to us humans and stock market timing signals, let’s look at some data from my morning article to clients:

Just to frame this image, it’s from the CBOE data, and it’s positioned to look at 5 an 13 day moving averages, which capture roughly 90% of most market moves.

Periodically this indicator can reach extremes.  It’s coming off one now.  And in the past, a high reading has resulted in market sell-offs.

Forget about the news, the only other event that matters here is that last Friday was options expiration.  Expiration is simpy the third Friday of every month – and for the most part trading is emotional or algorithmic, but this (like the last and first day of the month/quarter, although less so) is a calendar driven event, meaning you have options that expire on a certain date and you have to act by or on this date.

That may cause some pinning of price action.  And it’s why reversals in the stock market, periodically can align with options expiration.

So put it all together and while I’m bullish and long this market here, I am issuing a red flag of caution to my clients that on any sustained bearish price action, we’ll likely move into a sell signal and position short the market for a couple weeks, as the energy in the markets can sustain that level of a move.

If you’re interested in accessing my research (about 300 or so indicators) and our stock market timing signals, you can sign up here.

Regards,

Investment Research Group, Inc.

www.stockbarometer.com

Good afternoon traders,

The markets are on the verge of a significant move.  I’ll address what I’m seeing below.

But first, since we’ve recently added a few new people to our weekly mailing list, I’d like to spend a second on what differentiates me from the masses of other newsletter writers
out there.

Most newsletter writers will show you a chart, and based on past action, predict future action.  If chart reading could make you rich, then every technical analyst would be rich.  They’re not.

Why?  Without getting too deep into this issue, markets are random.  Why? Because
future news events are unknown, and therefore, also random.  However, what’s not random is how traders position their money behind the price action.  It is this positioning of money that creates extremes and inefficiencies in the market and gives us the best reflection of future price action.

We’re approaching one of those levels now.  Again, I’ll discuss it below.

Most newsletter writers won’t show you their secret sauce.  But for the past decade, I
have shared my algorithmic model of the markets “The Stock Barometer”.
I also share my entire 12 year data base of indicators covering the SPY, QQQ, Dollar, Bonds, Gold, Oil, Natural Gas, and more.  I figure the more I share my research and the more eyes on my research, the more I can help others from making a big mistake in the stock market.

I developed my data base back in 2000 when I was known as the Samurai Stock Trader to help me identify the better time to react to Japanese candlestick reversal
patterns.  It started focused on the NYSE.  It broadened in 2004 to cover the Nasdaq .  And now it covers a specific group of commodities and currencies and evolved into a system of trading the market, stocks and options called the Stock Barometer System.

The system is very simple, we give a buy signal to buy the stock market, we give you CALL options to consider for the up move and we give you stocks to consider for
the up move.  Then when we issue a sell signal on the stock market, we give you PUT options to consider, and advise you to raise your stops on your stock positions.  Most stocks follow the market.  It’s up to you if you want to go short the market when we’re in sell mode.

As a trader, I don’t care which way the market goes, just that it goes somewhere that allows us to profit.  And markets tend to take elevators down, and escalators
up.   So you can make more money, more quickly in a down market.  But at the end of the day, you have to do what’s comfortable for you.  Some clients apply a hedge when we give a sell signal.

And now it’s evolved into something more than the Stock Barometer System.  I believe the future of this research is more as a wealth advisory, looking more towards your major financial decisions in life.  Such as;

1.Should you put money to work in the stock market

2.Should you buy individual stocks or lighten up

3.Should you rebalance your longer term investments between stocks and bonds

Are these questions you have periodically?  If so, then we can help you answer them today, tomorrow and any time in the future you may need them addressed.

Best yet, you can get started with as little as one dollar.

Click here to sign up for a trial.  And use discount code DSB1 to start for
only one dollar.

You’ll want to sign up now because one of my indicators is suggesting a significant move in the markets could be developing as soon as this Friday or next Monday.

This indicator shows me who is investing in what.  And the relative level suggests to me if we are at a top, or a bottom.  And when the indicator moves up quickly like this, and when it stops moving up, the markets potential to drop hard increases greatly.

When one of my indicators starts to move like this, we follow it quite frequently to see how it plays out.  Now this is one of my 300 or so indicators.  So I don’t make any decisions without consulting all of them.  But I wanted to bring it to your attention, so you could be on the look out for a major move.

Again, click here if you want to follow along with us, sign up today.

Regards,

Stock Barometer/Investment Research Group, Inc.

To me, the key to profitting in the markets consistently is understanding stock market timing.  In fact, I’ve made it the basis of my research for over the last decade – so learn more about and access my research, click here stock market timing.

To the argument that the stock market movement is random, I absolutely believe it, to a degree, as future news is unknown, and random can be simply understood as something that is unknown.

But I also believe that there are key dates, that are known ahead of time, such as options expiration, and they can also have an impact on stock market timing.  Always pay attention to options expiration dates – epecially if you’re looking for a reversal.

And there are cycles that the market will follow.  Now these cycles don’t give you precise timing, but they can key you in on potential moves.  As the market’s movement can become a self fulfilling prophecy, such as in the sell in May and go away.  A very basic but periodically very accurate action.

So here’s an example of a timing model that we publish at the BEGINNING of every year.  This year’s has gotten a lot of publicity:

So given this at the beginning of the year, one would think that it’s easy to make money…  But it’s not.  Human nature is something that gets in the way of every trade you make.  Understanding your own mental limitations is key to becoming a professional stock market timer.

So is the above the key to stock market timing?  Absolutely not.  There are many numerical representations of the stock market.  And I believe these are the keys to timing the stock market.  We monitor them (and provide the research to our clients) to aid them in making longer term investment decisions.

The problem we solve for our clients is not to buy at tops, or sell at bottoms, which is wat happens to most individuals in the market.  If you are patient, realize that every day is not a good day to trade, and wait for market inefficiencies to reach extremes, you can do well in the markets.

For example, just looking at the relationship between stocks and bonds, can tell you a lot:

The above shows you that we’ve reached a relative extreme in the relationship between stocks and bonds, which would suggest this be a good time (well, a week ago) to transfer some assets from bonds to stocks.  Sure, in the short term there could be some weakness, but we’re talking about longer term stock market timing decisions.  The types of decisions you make now, but realize gains several months from now.

If you’re interested in learning more about stock market timing, feel free to peruse our blog here and then I’d suggest trying our service by clicking this link: stock market timing – do you want to do better in the markets?

So every year I put a forecast together that t

Good afternoon traders, as this monday after expiration comes to a close, there is a battle going on in the market place.  A battle that normally takes place behind price action.  As markets move higher and lower, people place bets.  And those bets give us the clues on what’s going to happen next in the stock market.  It’s time for a stock market timing update.

Stock Market Timing Update

Below is an indicator that I developed a decade ago – a formula based on 12 characteristics of stock market movement (basically way too much data to get into here).

I believe that every day is not a good day to trade.  That if you have patience, then you can find better entry and exit points that will improve your ability to trade and make decisions.  Over time, following market timing will make you a better trader.  I trade for a living – and also have this website www.stockbarometer.com where I give my daily advice on the markets.  I’ve been doing it for over a decade, so to survive in what I do, you have to be good.  Or stupid   I’m a little bit of both…

That being said, here’s our indicator for earlier today:

We’ve been long for a lot longer than we would normally be, as this market could enter into a liquidity move.  These are some of the best moves in the market where significant profits will be made.  However, we’re starting to see some cracks in that move.  Key will be what happens to bonds and the dollar over the next day.

If you want to follow along with our stock market timing, you can sign up here – www.stockbarometer.com

or if you want to sign up for our free weekly Stock Market Timing Updates, then you can do so by clicking here:  http://www.mailermailer.com/x?oid=20628s

Regards,

Stock Barometer - Investment Research Group, Inc.

From my article today:

Closing In On Our Key Reversal Date
1/12 is in focus

Good morning traders.  Hope you all had a nice weekend.  To traders, it’s a time to relax and refresh and get ready for the new week ahead.  Sometimes, the weekends are crazy and you need the next week to recover.  The same happens with the markets.  Not much happened over the weekend, so I expect our view to continue.

I know everyone is looking for a top, but that has me expecting a bit more upside before the market gives it up.  The good news is that if we get weakness this week (or a sideways consolidation) then we could be settting up another leg higher.  That’s scenario two.  But not what I expect just yet.  I’d rather see this advance play out, and maybe a hang up into expirations (next week).  Not there yet, so let’s not get too excited…

If you’re not a member of our free weekly mailing list, feel free to sign up by clicking here.

3 reasons to be bullish

Daily Stock Market Outlook

We remain in Buy Mode, looking for the markets to move higher into January 12th. The next dates after that take us into expiration.

Regards,

Stock Barometer

Investment Research Group, Inc.

Click here to learn more.