Each week we contribute to the Timer Trac (TimerTrac) weekly broadcast. Timer Trac is a verification service – that verifies the performance (tracks market timers) and track record of stock and ETF investing advisories.
We use this Blog to update our Timer Trac (timertrac) Broadcast posts. Here are past comments:
Monday, April 18, 2011
We moved into Sell Mode two weeks ago. Last week was expiration week and formed a consolidation. The market is building energy to rally, but I would expect a push to test the March lows. If we get that, and it holds, it will confirm a 9 month cycle low and this market will be off to the races again. This week I will share with you a chart of the ecri weekly indicator. It’s very interesting…
Monday, April 4, 2011
While we remain in Buy Mode, the market energy is waning. This week should see a pullback or at least a consolidation. What the market does during this pullback will determine where we go from here. One way to understand the market energy is to look at this chart of breadth market. Click the link to see 4 different ways to view market breadth. Our next key reversal date is 4/6.
Monday, March 21, 2011
The market is building energy for a significant advance. It’s best seen in this put call chart. Click the link to see the image. In fact, it’s at the highest level it’s been at since Earlier in 2010. That gives the potential for a great rally here. Our next key reversal date is 4/6.
Monday, March 7, 2011
We’re coming off a peak in the Nasdaq Advancing Stocks – follow that link you’ll see a chart that shows the peak. This peak can either be terminal, or initiating. It looks as if it is an initiating sign of strength, and the market should retest highs and travel beyond into March 10-18. We remain in Buy Mode, expecting this market to test the lows and push higher.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
We’ve been short, looking for the stock market to correct. We are finally seeing this action but are not confident that this is a longer term sell signal. If the stock market holds on to lows this week, we will rally up to Mid February as detailed in our daily financial blog. Geopolitical events tend to be short lived.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Our barometer remains in Sell Mode since July 30th. Monday is ay 12 in our Down Cycle. Our next key reversal day is September 14th. Our next key reversal date is 9/14 – so whatever move we get, I think we will get it into 9/14. We had a trading cycle reversal date of 7/31, which if you remember back is one reason why we moved into sell mode so quickly (that and to protect some profits). The next Trading Cycle date is 9/21. Another thing about September is the change of season. There is some alignment with seasonal shifts and market reversals. So big picture, what I’d like to see is a move lower into September 14th, retest of that low around 9/21 and then a year end rally (like the good old days).
Sunday, July 5, 2009
This week I’d like to focus in on the 20 week cycle (posted on our home page). It’s in conflict with seasonality, which normally sees a peak into mid July, the 20 week is calling for a move lower for the next week to two. As a market timer, you have to weigh the facts and position accordingly. The QQQQs (which is what we trade, including leveraged ETFs, funds and other derivatives) remain inside the previous highs and lows, creating a consolidation. While we’re getting preliminary sell signals, We’d prefer to see this break down confirm itself. If not, I suspect a move higher into the middle of the month and a larger retracement to take us into September. The action over the next few weeks should set up the next larger move in the market.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
We remain in Buy Mode, looking for the markets move higher into September. On investing versus trading, I trust you all know the difference, but when I teach, I’m always surprised at the number of people who 1) don’t realize they’re trading and 2) think they’re traders, but they’re actually just investors. I could go on forever about this topic – but my big message is not to mix investments and trades and the two philosophies can’t coexist. Keep your long term investments much bigger than your short term trades. And never follow the crowd.
March 1, 2008
Expectations have shifted for a quick thrust move down to 3/6 setting up a longer term bottom and bounce into 4/5 – our next key reversal date. We’re also entering sell mode here somewhat as a precaution for lower prices to come. Even though the Qs haven’t broken below this pattern, they have the potential to get ugly if they break below this level. If they hold with some kind of Hirami style pattern on Monday, they may hold support and then we’ll just reposition on any strength and a buy signal.
January 20, 2008
We remain in CASH awaiting the next Buy Signal. We offer that the market will bottom here, and bounce into 2/1. Expiration often marks turning points in the market. We’ll be incorporating CASH Mode (or STOP Mode) into the system in 2008 to reduce losses and protect gains. This will increase activity to an extent. Fear has reached an extreme as evidenced by the equity put call ratio. Friday’s move lower hit an important Fibonacci projection suggesting that this down leg is over (unless we see a 162% Fib move – although that would equate to a crash).
January 8, 2008
We remain in Sell Mode as the barometer continued lower. It is slowing down and looking like it may turn around as we head into our 1/11 reversal date.
December 28, 2007
We remain in Buy Mode and expect the market to move sideways to lower into the end of the year and then rally for the first half of January into 1/11. Word of caution though, if the market hangs up here and gets overbought and complacent, then we could be in position for a very bearish start to 2008.
Timer Trac (TimerTrac) tracks and verifies timing investment and financial newsletter performance strategies and trades. They are located at timertrac.com.
Dave Garrett is President of Timer Trac.
Click here to learn more about the ECRI weekly Indicator.