The below chart represents Cumulative ETF money flow.

We’ve been monitoring money flow into this group, causing a narrowing or market breadth, leaving the stock market vulnerable.  Visit our site www.stockbarometer.com to learn how to profit from the coming market move.

This is significantly strong, but on a contrarian basis, it can be bearish. Visit our Facebook page below to see our Roc view. Access all this data on our website below.

ETF Money Flow

This is one of our 300 market timing indicators to help traders and investors identify potential buy and sell points.

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USO USD RSI

Good morning Traders,

Here’s a chart that shows the market’s potential 1 month return based on the
action of the barometer.

stock market future returns

The line on the bottom is the barometer.  The line on top is the 1 month
future return of the QQQs.  As you can see, the right side of
the return line is not filled out yet – that’s because this is a
forward looking indicator, so we do not know what the return 30 days from today
will be…

But we can look back and use this as a basis to see what similar points in
time have returned in the past.  So for example, if you look back at the
first peak in the barometer from 2013 – you can see that when the barometer
turned lower, the market’s future return was around -5%. 

And when the barometer bottomed after that point, the market returned
+5-7%. 

So based on this data, we can make the following observation.  Given the
level of the barometer today, the market’s likely future return is less than
zero to -5% over the next month.  We do look over longer periods, but 1
month is a good focus point, since most trades should last longer than a
month.

What you can also observe from this indicator is that during a bull market,
the negative returns will be muted.  You can look at the period from July
2013 to the beginning of 2014 and for the most part, you could have bought the
Qs at any time during that period and closed your trade in one month with a
positive return.

Let us know if you have any questions in the above.  It’s part of our
research we provide here and we provide it for other indicators as well to
ascertain the data and if it’s useful or not in trading. 

The market is turning lower this am and we’re close to a window where we
would start issuing our covered call and put options trades.  So stay
tuned…

Regards,

www.stockbarometer.com

Good morning traders,

Here’s a chart from this morning’s update:

oil inventories

We recommended PUT Options for USO that will double with as little as a 5.8% move lower in USO.  Visit www.stockbarometer.com to sign up for Oil Options Trader to see our recommendations.  You can try the service for $1 and a monthly subscription is only $9.95.

Or click the link below and use Discount Code SOS1 to get your $1 trial.

Oil Options Trader $9.95 Oil Options SOS1

Still Looking To Get Short
3/23/2014 10:00:07 PM
Print View

Hello Everybody

To learn more about my Fat Pitch ETF Advisory, please click here.

Trade Actions:   Buy SH ( Short SP ) at 23.5 or Better

My service is typically a 10-position limit service.  What that means is that you should limit your buying of any recommendation to 1/10 of the assets that you want to earmark for this account.  Example:  If you decide that you only want to have $ 50,000 dedicated to this advisory, that means that only about $ 5000 should be made available to each position.  So if I recommend a ETF with a price around 30, you would then buy about 170 shares. But if I recommend a fund with a price around 170 , you would only be buying 30 shares.  Now this is just a guide and reality is everybody is going to do different things.  There are times that I might only have 4 or 5 positions on.  That means the rest of your money is sitting in cash.  There are times that I might recommend 12 positions on and I will point out that the last two positions are only for somebody that has the extra money and is willing to take on the extra risk that the two positions are giving.  That is usually when I am either super bullish or super bearish on certain markets.  Does not happen often.

Remember this is a 10-position account .  We now have 3-positions on.

Market Outlook/Potential Opportunities:

Un-bold is last week’s commentary.  Bold is this week’s commentary.

Stock Market ? 

 Look for a Trading market . Sell Rallies and Buy Breaks

OK , We are now out with a solid couple of base hits.  We are looking to get short again for the next breakdown.  I thought it would of happen by now.  Let’s see if this is the week it happens.     Buy SH ( Short SP ) at 23.5 or Better

Just Missed it.  Still might happen. One never knows. Still looking to get short 

Energy ?

This is still a Neutral Market even though it has shown some recent strength.

 By George, I think the Oil Market has made a bottom here.  Buy USL at the Market.

Just when you think the getting’s good.  They pull the rug out.

Metals ???

Has a bottom been established.  That is possible.  Butch Cassidy once told the Sundance Kid.  This is no time for heroes, you go first.  That is the way I feel.  Not sure that I want to be that hero.  Bottom could be in, but no need to chase.  Buy the breaks.

Trend has definitely changed here.  We just need a safe territory to buy.

We are going to get our feet wet .  Buy SLV ( Silver ) at the Market

Bonds ?

The bond market has broken down.  The long term uptrend in long term rates has officially started. Key Reversal Up on this Fund

We might be there.  Buy TBT at the Market.  We know where interest rates are going now

We hung on too long.  Now we sit through a nasty correction.  Slowing economy driving rates lower again.  Seems to be swing our way again. Hanging on for the Long-Term.  Thick or Thin.

That was a Beautiful Double Bottom in interest rates.  Might be a lift off time here.

Currencies ?

            Buy CNY ( Chinese Yuan ) at the Market.  We had a good outside week to the upside.  It could be time to move on this. 

A number of Heavy Advisors are calling for a run up in the Yuan.  Might as well join the party.  We are now back in. 

Herky Jerky here, but the trend is in our favor. We might be finally breaking up here

Who is the Victim of this debt confrontation.  Our Dollar is getting hit.

Lots of volatility here.

Commodities ?

            Nothing at this time. Maybe something by next week

Current Long Portfolio

Bought  SLV ( Silver ) at 20.5                                              It closed at 19.5

Bought USL ( Oil ) at 43                                                        It closed at 43.4

Bought TBT ( Short Bonds ) at 69.9                                      It closed at 68.77

Bought CNY ( Yuan ) at 41                                                   It closed at 41.6

Current Short Portfolio:

None

Recently Closed Positions

Bought PRN ( Dynamic Industrials ) at 46                         Sols it at 48.5

Bought FBT ( Bio Tech ) at 75.6                                          Sold it at 83.8

If you’re receiving this, you can access all our previous articles and recommendations by clicking here.

If you cannot recall your username and password, please email us at customersupport@stockbarometer.com.

If you’re interested in continuing to receive our ETF Trades, please click here to go to our subscribe page.

Thank You

If you want to contact me send me an e-mail  bill@stockbarometer.com

Hello Everybody

To learn more about my Fat Pitch ETF Advisory, please click here 

Trade Actions:   Buy SH ( Short SP ) at 23.5 or Better                          

My service is typically a 10-position limit service.  What that means is that you should limit your buying of any recommendation to 1/10 of the assets that you want to earmark for this account.  Example:  If you decide that you only want to have $ 50,000 dedicated to this advisory, that means that only about $ 5000 should be made available to each position.  So if I recommend a ETF with a price around 30, you would then buy about 170 shares. But if I recommend a fund with a price around 170 , you would only be buying 30 shares.  Now this is just a guide and reality is everybody is going to do different things.  There are times that I might only have 4 or 5 positions on.  That means the rest of your money is sitting in cash.  There are times that I might recommend 12 positions on and I will point out that the last two positions are only for somebody that has the extra money and is willing to take on the extra risk that the two positions are giving.  That is usually when I am either super bullish or super bearish on certain markets.  Does not happen often.

Remember this is a 10-position account .  We now have 5-positions on. 

Market Outlook/Potential Opportunities:

Un-bold is last week’s commentary.  Bold is this week’s commentary. 

Stock Market ? 

We are Long one Stock Fund PRN ( Dynamite Industrials )  I am going to keep this on a short leash as I do not have a lot of confidence that the Stock Market can hold onto gains here.  I feel the economy is getting Bullish but prices are already baked in.  Try to close it out for a Short Term Profit. Look for a Trading market . Sell Rallies and Buy Breaks. 

Small gain on PRN but in this environment We will take it

Would love to get a rally to sell into.  Just does not seem to be in the cards at this time.

We bought two Sock Funds just in the  nick of time.

Bought PRN ( Dynamic Industrials ) at 46                         It closed at 46.8

Bought FBT ( Bio Tech ) at 75.6                                          It closed at 78.1 

Energy ?

We are out of the Oil Market at this time but we will be looking for a good entrance to get back in.  Oil might of bottomed here.  Starting to look a little closer here.

This is still a Neutral Market even though it has shown some recent strength.

 By George, I think the Oil Market has made a bottom here.  Buy USL at the Market.

Just when you think the getting’s good.  They pull the rug out. 

Metals ?

Throw away Gold and Silver Wait for a possible January bottom

Has a bottom been established.  That is possible.  Butch Cassidy once told the Sundance Kid.  This is no time for heroes, you go first.  That is the way I feel.  Not sure that I want to be that hero.  It appears metals are still going lower. 

Bonds ?

The bond market has broken down.  The long term uptrend in long term rates has officially started. Key Reversal Up on this Fund 

We might be there.  Buy TBT at the Market.  We know where interest rates are going now

We hung on too long.  Now we sit through a nasty correction.  Slowing economy driving rates lower again.  Seems to be swing our way again. Hanging on for the Long-Term.  Thick or Thin.

Currencies ? 

            Buy CNY ( Chinese Yuan ) at the Market.  We had a good outside week to the upside.  It could be time to move on this. 

A number of Heavy Advisors are calling for a run up in the Yuan.  Might as well join the party.  We are now back in. 

Herky Jerky here, but the trend is in our favor. We might be finally breaking up here

Who is the Victim of this debt confrontation.  Our Dollar is getting hit.

Lots of volatility here. 

Commodities ?

            Nothing at this time. Maybe something by next week 

Current Long Portfolio 

Bought PRN ( Dynamic Industrials ) at 46                         It closed at 46.8

Bought FBT ( Bio Tech ) at 75.6                                          It closed at 78.1 

Bought USL ( Oil ) at 43                                                        It closed at 43.3

Bought TBT ( Short Bonds ) at 69.9                                      It closed at 71.6

Bought CNY ( Yuan ) at 41                                                   It closed at 42.4

Current Short Portfolio:

None

Recently Closed Positions 

If you’re receiving this, you can access all our previous articles and recommendations by clicking here.

If you cannot recall your username and password, please email us at customersupport@stockbarometer.com.

If you’re interested in continuing to receive our ETF Trades, please click here to go to our subscribe page.

Thank You

If you want to contact me send me an e-mail  bill@stockbarometer.com 

Hello Everybody

To learn more about my Fat Pitch ETF Advisory, please click here.

Trade Actions:  Buy PRN ( Dynamic Industrials ) at the Market

                          Buy FBT ( Bio Tech ) at the Market

                          Buy SH ( Short SP ) at 24.5 or Better                        

My service is typically a 10-position limit service.  What that means is that you should limit your buying of any recommendation to 1/10 of the assets that you want to earmark for this account.  Example:  If you decide that you only want to have $ 50,000 dedicated to this advisory, that means that only about $ 5000 should be made available to each position.  So if I recommend a ETF with a price around 30, you would then buy about 170 shares. But if I recommend a fund with a price around 170 , you would only be buying 30 shares.  Now this is just a guide and reality is everybody is going to do different things.  There are times that I might only have 4 or 5 positions on.  That means the rest of your money is sitting in cash.  There are times that I might recommend 12 positions on and I will point out that the last two positions are only for somebody that has the extra money and is willing to take on the extra risk that the two positions are giving.  That is usually when I am either super bullish or super bearish on certain markets.  Does not happen often.

Remember this is a 10-position account .  We now have 3-positions on.

Market Outlook/Potential Opportunities:

Un-bold is last week’s commentary.  Bold is this week’s commentary.

Stock Market ? 

We are Long one Stock Fund PRN ( Dynamite Industrials )  I am going to keep this on a short leash as I do not have a lot of confidence that the Stock Market can hold onto gains here.  I feel the economy is getting Bullish but prices are already baked in.  Try to close it out for a Short Term Profit. Look for a Trading market . Sell Rallies and Buy Breaks

Small gain on PRN but in this environment We will take it

Would love to get a rally to sell into.  Just does not seem to be in the cards at this time.

Energy ?

We are out of the Oil Market at this time but we will be looking for a good entrance to get back in.  Oil might of bottomed here.  Starting to look a little closer here.

This is still a Neutral Market even though it has shown some recent strength.

 By George, I think the Oil Market has made a bottom here.  Buy USL at the Market.

Just when you think the getting’s good.  They pull the rug out.

Metals ?

Throw away Gold and Silver Wait for a possible January bottom

Has a bottom been established.  That is possible.  Butch Cassidy once told the Sundance Kid.  This is no time for heroes, you go first.  That is the way I feel.  Not sure that I want to be that hero.  It appears metals are still going lower.

Bonds ?

The bond market has broken down.  The long term uptrend in long term rates has officially started. Key Reversal Up on this Fund

We might be there.  Buy TBT at the Market.  We know where interest rates are going now

We hung on too long.  Now we sit through a nasty correction.  Slowing economy driving rates lower again.  Seems to be swing our way again. Hanging on for the Long-Term.  Thick or Thin.

Currencies ?

            Buy CNY ( Chinese Yuan ) at the Market.  We had a good outside week to the upside.  It could be time to move on this. 

A number of Heavy Advisors are calling for a run up in the Yuan.  Might as well join the party.  We are now back in. 

Herky Jerky here, but the trend is in our favor. We might be finally breaking up here

Who is the Victim of this debt confrontation.  Our Dollar is getting hit.

Lots of volatility here.

Commodities ?

            Nothing at this time. Maybe something by next week

Current Long Portfolio

Bought USL ( Oil ) at 43                                                        It closed at 42.9

Bought TBT ( Short Bonds ) at 69.9                                      It closed at 71.3

Bought CNY ( Yuan ) at 41                                                   It closed at 42.6

Current Short Portfolio:

None

Recently Closed Positions

If you’re receiving this, you can access all our previous articles and recommendations by clicking here.

If you cannot recall your username and password, please email us at customersupport@stockbarometer.com.

If you’re interested in continuing to receive our ETF Trades, please click here to go to our subscribe page.

Thank You

If you want to contact me send me an e-mail  bill@stockbarometer.com

Another move higher but most equity indexes…

Dow continues to struggle…

Recommendation:  Take no action.    

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Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Timing

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

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The major indexes opened higher then moved lower for the first forty-five minutes before beginning a rally that would last through the lunch hour.  The pull back that followed was fairly shallow and lasted less than an hour with the final two hours of trading seeing the bulls in control.  The Dow closed with a modest loss while the S&P-500 and the NASDAQ-100 were able to post fractional gains.  The Bank Index (KBE 34.03 +0.20) and the Regional Bank Index (KRE 41.17 +0.26) both added partial gains and the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.96 +0.01) closed flat.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 117.21 +0.59) added a fractional gain.  The Semiconductor Index (SOX 547.47 +5.97) added more than one percent as did the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 135.16 +1.53).  Both also shifted to uptrend states.  All equity indexes that we regularly follow are in trading states.  All equity indexes we regularly monitor are above their 20-, 50-, and 200-Day Moving Average (DMAs).  Longer term bonds (TLT 105.30 -0.26) slipped modestly.  It remains above its 20- and 50-DMAs but below its 200-DMA.  It shifted to a BULLISH BIAS.  It is in an uptrend state.  Trading volume was light with 629M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume was average with 1.993B shares traded. 

There was a single economic report released:

  • MBA Mortgage Index rose +4.7% last week.

The report was released hours before the open.

We are watching gold for a potential bottom and are looking at entering a long position in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 23.09 -0.61) fell most of three percent as Gold fell about one half of one percent.

Apple (AAPL 551.51 +2.44) rose fractionally.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar rose nearly one tenth of one percent while the Euro made a similar move in the opposite direction.

The yield for the 10-year rose three basis points to close at 2.86.  The price of a barrel of crude rose +$1.74 to close at $96.73

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 12.84 -0.03) was essentially flat.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 14.43 +0.09) rose fractionally.  Both the VIX and VXN are well below their respective 200-DMAs.    

Market internals were bullish with advancers leading decliners my nearly 2:1 on the NYSE but only 4:3 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume 3:2 on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.32 to close at 1.15.  The equity put/call ratio fell -0.05 to close at 0.52.

Conclusion/Commentary

Wednesday was a bullish day overall with the only equity index we regularly monitor that fell being the Dow.  Financials, however, were relatively unchanged (except for the banks).  The market continues to record to new highs, in terms of the the Russell-2000, the Dow Jones Transports, and the bank indexes.  We are now looking for the pause that refreshes to come about with all equity indexes likely taking a modest hit before being able to move higher.  This is healthy for the market and we will re-look at our positions after trading on Thursday.  We will remain long at this time.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

Hello Everybody

To learn more about my Fat Pitch ETF Advisory, please click here.

Trade Actions: Nothing at This Time

My service is typically a 10-position limit service. What that means is that you should limit your buying of any recommendation to 1/10 of the assets that you want to earmark for this account. Example: If you decide that you only want to have $ 50,000 dedicated to this advisory, that means that only about $ 5000 should be made available to each position. So if I recommend a ETF with a price around 30, you would then buy about 170 shares. But if I recommend a fund with a price around 170 , you would only be buying 30 shares.

Now this is just a guide and reality is everybody is going to do different things. There are times that I might only have 4 or 5 positions on. That means the rest of your money is sitting in cash. There are times that I might recommend 12 positions on and I will point out that the last two positions are only for somebody that has the extra money and is willing to take on the extra risk that the two positions are giving. That is usually when I am either super bullish or super bearish on certain markets. Does not happen often. Remember this is a 10-position account.

We now have 4-positions on.

Market Outlook/Potential Opportunities:

Un-bold is last week’s commentary. Bold is this week’s commentary.

Stock Market ?

We are Long one Stock Fund PRN ( Dynamite Industrials ) I am going to keep this on a short leash as I do not have a lot of confidence that the Stock Market can hold onto gains here. I feel the economy is getting Bullish but prices are already baked in.

Energy ?

We are out of the Oil Market at this time but we will be looking for a good entrance to get back in. Oil might of bottomed here. Starting to look a little closer here. This is still a Neutral Market even though it has shown some recent strength. By George, I think the Oil Market has made a bottom here. Buy USL at the Market. Just when you think the getting’s good. They pull the rug out.

Metals ?

Throw away Gold and Silver Wait for a possible January bottom Has a bottom been established. That is possible. Butch Cassidy once told the Sundance Kid. This is no time for heroes, you go first. That is the way I feel. Not sure that I want to be that hero

Bonds ?

The bond market has broken down. The long term uptrend in long term rates has officially started. Key Reversal Up on this Fund We might be there. Buy TBT at the Market. We know where interest rates are going now We hung on too long. Now we sit through a nasty correction. Slowing economy driving rates lower again. Seems to be swing our way again. Hanging on for the Long-Term. Thick or Thin.

Currencies ?

Buy CNY ( Chinese Yuan ) at the Market. We had a good outside week to the upside. It could be time to move on this. A number of Heavy Advisors are calling for a run up in the Yuan. Might as well join the party. We are now back in. Herky Jerky here, but the trend is in our favor. We might be finally breaking up here Who is the Victim of this debt confrontation. Our Dollar is getting hit. Lots of volatility here.

Commodities ?

Nothing at this time. Maybe something by next week

Current Long Portfolio

PRN ( Dynamic Industrials ) at 47.5 It closed at 47.4

Bought USL ( Oil ) at 43 It closed at 41.3

Bought TBT ( Short Bonds ) at 69.9 It closed at 78.8

Bought CNY ( Yuan ) at 41 It closed at 43

Current Short Portfolio: None

Recently Closed Positions: None

If you’re receiving this, you can access all our previous articles and recommendations by clicking here.

If you cannot recall your username and password, please email us at customersupport@stockbarometer.com.

If you’re interested in continuing to receive our ETF Trades, please click here to go to our subscribe page.

PS – don’t forget about our free stock market newsletter where we provide free research and talk about the markets every week. 

Thank You If you want to contact me send me an e-mail bill@stockbarometer.com

Gold has been a very popular investment vehicle, either through the use of the GLD ETF, or through some 2x leveraged ETFs such as DGP and DZZ.

However, I’ve been bearish on Gold for a while.  Here’s one reason why:

gold

Ths is a chart that I published for my clients over a month ago (and it’s not the first time I published it).

This is just one indicator that we have that gives you a read on my views on gold – much deeper than any chart you can see.  Most of my analysis is about finding data that supports underlying movement.  Most people think stock movement is a random walk.  I think the markets are adaptive.  And since even a random action can be predictive at some points in time, an adaptive market and even more so, behavioral market, is quite predictable.

To learn more about my quantiative approach, consider joining me by clicking here.

Regards,

Stock Barometer

Investment Research Group, Inc.