Frank Delaney IV Market Pulse

The S&P which I use as a general guide had a difficult week closed near its lows at approximately 1886.00. 

S&P Dec Contract

The market has most likely made its highs for the year. I suggested we were oversold last week. The spike in volatility this past week suggests that we are short term very oversold I wrote last week that we would most likely test the prior week’s lows after the jobs number came out. I suggested a traded in HAL from the long side. The market tested its lows rallied strongly Thursday. I felt my theory for the week was working well till the market fell apart and closed near its lows Friday. If you were long HAL you would have been stopped out. Capital preservation is very important in such a volatile environment. I believe the market will rally this week but we have probably seen the highs for the year. Technicals indicate a short term high volume blow off low. When I begin my market pulse letter in the next few weeks I will send daily observations on specific recommendations. I will keep positions limited to 3 to 5 positions. I think there will be many opportunities on the short side in the weeks to come.

 HAl Oct 10th 2014

I believe HAL is set up for a retracement higher to the 62 to 65 level in the next couple weeks. The precipitous fall in oil has taken all oil related stocks with it. When the market gets its footing early this week oils service companies will retrace their sharp declines over the last few weeks. Keep an eye on oil to stabilize and make a higher low this week. Discipline and patience will set up some great short opportunities over the next few months. Selling into this break at this point is inappropriate. Looking forward to helping you be your best as we move forward. Patience and discipline.

Have a good week.

Regards, Frank

Frank Delaney’s Market Pulse will soon be featured on www.stockbarometer.com

In about a month or so, we’ll be adding Trader Frank Delaney IV to our team at Investment Research Group, Inc./Stock Barometer.   In the Interim, here’s a bit on his BIO as well as a market update from this veteran trader.

Bio: Frank A Delaney. Spending my entire career on Wall Street, I was an integral part of the success of two firms: Henderson Brothers Inc. and Bear Wagner, LLC. I was a Senior Managing Director at Henderson Brothers Inc and part of the four person management team that sold the firm in  the year 2000. As a Senior Managing Director and Partner at Bear Wagner LLC., I was a key producer, risk manager and proven producer of over a hundred million dollars. I provided direction for over 60 traders and 120 support staff. The key to my production was both technical and fundamental research. One of the keys to my success was being position agnostic to being long or short.   I was integral in bringing several firms public including Estee Lauder.  My trading skills have developed from many years of being mentored by the most talented technical analysts in the world.  With the use of technical analysis expanding into the use of candlesticks with the addition of looking at the fundamentals of both corporations with a view of the domestic and international economy, I have consistently outperformed the market  .That with an eye on the domestic and international  political,  social  and technological advancements give me a unique perspective on the markets. The markets themselves continue to evolve over the years. It is extremely important to understand how the markets work so you can navigate trading them. I believe my 25 years of experience can help individuals and groups become more successful.

Stock Market Update and proposed trade

The market as of the close of trading on Thursday September  2nd has had a 10 % correction off its highs for the year . Whether you are looking at the Dow the S&P or the Russell they basically all have corrected approximately 10%. They held Thursdays low on Friday and rallied approx 1%. The market is most likely short term oversold . We will probably test Thursdays low in the next 5 trading days. This is an opportunity for a couple of short term trades from the long side. If you look at the chart I have attached of Halliburton (HAL) you can see where it hammered on Thursday and rallied on Friday.

Halliburton HAL

I believe as long as HAL closes within 50 cents of Thursdays low you should buy it for a 4 to 10 day trade to the 66-68 range. Trailing stop should be entered when it breaks through 65 . The oil sector has been especially hard hit over the last six weeks . Halliburton provides infrastructure to the oil and gas sector whether the price of oil and gas goes up or down, so fundamentally HAL has a solid foundation.

The media has us believing the market rallied on the improvement of the jobless number falling to 5.9%.  In fact the reason for the improved job number are from the unemployed falling off the map as they have fallen off the roles after being unemployed for so long. As more people are not counted as they have stopped looking for jobs, obviously the jobs number will improve. As we get closer to November elections Republican groups will come out railing against the legitimacy of the employment numbers and there will be several calls of fraud at several census bureau districts about the unemployment numbers.

Social Political and International Commentary:

The Ebola scare will develop further but will not affect the US population or economy in any meaningful way.  The Ebola virus could and should have been addressed earlier by our executive and legislative branch of the US government. Continued lack of political courage and self promotion has hamstringed US political leadership. The enterovirus in children causing paralysis is a much bigger issue that needs to be addressed in the US.  

ISIS will continue to be in the news for quite a long time. The US and Allied Sorties have disrupted their routine, but they will continue to change their terror tactics to avoid detection from the air. Turkey will put “boots on the ground” as the group has threatened their borders. The US should use Navy Seal and Black Ops hit and run tactics to demoralize and yes terrorize the ISIS Group. The pressure should be relentless and constant.  This along with military advisors will diminish ISISs’ reach . A terrorist event is possible on the US homeland. Homeland Security Forces and infrastructure will have to be grown and kept on the constant alert for years to come. The US borders must be protected . It will take years but the effort should begin know. I am talking about a secure border not a closed border.