Bears counter attack…

A few indexes struggle higher but most take losses…

Recommendation:  Take no action. 

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $33.90 on June 15, 2012 (Shares were put to us when options expired. We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options and bought shares for $35.00 each).  We have collected dividends: March 5, 2014 $0.98, December 3, 2013 $0.95, September 5, 2013 $0.91, June 5, 2013 $0.88, $1.70 Dec 4, 2012, $0.84 Sep 4, 2012. Total = $5.28 in dividend payments.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

Long SDRL at $35.43 on Feb 18, 2014

Long SDRL at $33.50 on March 21, 2014 (Shares were put to us when options expired.  We were paid $1.50 per share when we sold those options and bought the shares for $35.00 each.

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes gapped up at the open then struggled as they moved higher for the first half hour then rolled over and dove most of the rest of the session.  While there was a bounce that started during the lunch hour, the final intraday bottom was made with 1.5 hours remaining.  Equities most rallied into the close leaving the Dow and S&P-500 flat and with a large fractional loss for the NASDAQ-100.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 117.20 -1.20) lost one percent and the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 137.30 -0.27) and the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 22.39 -0.04) posted modest losses.  The Semiconductor Index (SOX 595.93 +0.99), the Bank Index (KBE 34.49 +0.06), and the Regional Bank Index (KRE 42.16 +0.05) all posted modest gains.  This left only the NASDAQ-100 and Russell-2000 closing below their 20-Day Moving Averages (DMAs).  All equity indexes we regularly report on are in uptrend states with the exception of the NASDAQ-100 and the Russell 2000(IWM 118.40 +0.53).  Also, all of them have a BULLISH BIAS except for the NASDAQ-100 which has a NEUTRAL BIAS.  Longer term bonds (TLT 107.74 +0.47) closed back above its 50-DMA but remains below its 20-DMA.  It is in a trading state.  It has a BULLISH BIAS but has warned of a potential change to a BEARISH BIAS.  Trading volume was below average with 661M shares traded on the NYSE.  Trading volume on the NASDAQ was average with 2.030B shares traded. 

There were five economic reports of interest released:

  • Challenger Job Cuts (Mar) fell -30.2% versus February’s -24.4%
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week came in at 326K versus an expected 320K
  • Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 2.836M versus an expected 2.850M
  • Trade Balance (Feb) fell -$42.3B versus an expected -$39.3B
  • ISM Services (Mar) came in at 53.1 versus an expected 53.5

All reports were released an hour or more before the open except the final report which came out a half hour into trading.      

We are watching gold for a potential reversal in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 24.07 -0.25) lost one percent while the price of Gold (GLD 123.92 -0.40) posted a modest loss.     

Apple (AAPL 538.79 -2.86) lost about one half of one percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

Seadrill Limited (SDRL 34.96 -0.56) could not break above its 50-DMA and moved back toward the support of its 20-DMA.  We believe the stock has bottomed and could pull back to the support of its 20-DMA or it may begin moving aggressively higher soon.  We sold March 2014 $35.00 put contracts for $150 at the open on Feb 18th and bought shares at $35.43.  The stock is now trading ex-dividend for $0.98.  The shares were put to us at $35.00 less the $1.50 per share we were paid for the puts, so we have an effective price of $33.50. 

The U.S. dollar rose three tenths of one percent while the Euro fell four tenths of one percent. 

The yield for the 10-year fell a single basis point to close at 2.79.  The price of a barrel of crude oil rose sixty-seven cents to close at $100.29.  

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 13.37 +0.28) rose two percent which is still well below its 200-DMA.  Implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 16.96 +0.59) rose most of four percent which is well above its 200-DMA.   

Market internals were bearish with decliners leading advancers 3:2 on the NYSE and by 5:2 on the NASDAQ.  Down volume led up volume by nearly 3:2 on the NYSE and by 2:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.39 to close at 1.01.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.08 to close at 0.59.

Conclusion/Commentary

Thursday’s consolidation was expected.  While the NASDAQ-100 and Russell-2000 were hit pretty hard, other equity indexes treaded water for the most part with the semiconductor index and both bank indexes actually recording gains.  We believe that this was needed to work off some overbought conditions.  Trading volume was relatively light.  We reiterate that odds are against a top forming here.  We are sticking with our idea that, “we are looking for a bit of a stall in bullish momentum as the overbought conditions get worked off and then a continuation to the upside.” 

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com 

Mixed market.
3/10/2014 9:11:36 AM
Print View

Mixed market…

Equity indexes finish mixed…

Recommendation:  Take no action. 

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 stock market trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $33.90 on June 15, 2012 (Shares were put to us when options expired. We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options and bought them for $35.00 each).  We have collected dividends: December 3, 2013 $0.95, September 5, 2013 $0.91, June 5, 2013 $0.88, $1.70 Dec 4, 2012, $0.84 Sep 4, 2012. Total = $5.28 in dividend payments.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

Long SDRL at $35.43 on Feb 18, 2014

Short SDRL March ’14 $35.00 puts for $1.50 per share

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher then slipped for the first half hour before rallying for a bit more than fifteen minutes before beginning a descent that would last much of the rest of the morning.  The next rally ended with the start of the lunch hour and equity indexes traded mostly lower until the final two hours when, at different times, they began to shake off the bearishness and rallied into the close with a particularly strong rally in the final fifteen minutes.  This was not enough to allow the NASDAQ-100 to finish in positive territory and it lost one half of one percent.  The Dow and S&P-500 were both able to post gains but neither was significantly bullish.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 119.70 +0.04) and the Semiconductor Index (SOX 574.39 -0.63) posted modest losses while the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 136.34 +0.65) posted a fractional gain.  The Regional Bank Index (KRE 41.18 +0.45) posted a gain of more than one percent while the Bank Index (KBE 33.92 +0.27) and the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 22.37 +0.10) both posted fractional gains.  All equity indexes closed above their 20-, 50-, and 200-Day Moving Averages (DMAs).  All equity indexes are in uptrend states and have a BULLISH BIAS.  Longer term bonds (TLT 105.89 -0.67) lost more than one half of one percent and closed below its 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs.  It has a BULLISH BIAS but has warned of a shift to a BEARISH BIAS and is in a trading state.  Trading volume continued to be light with 683M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume continued as just above average with 2.134B shares traded.

There were seven economic reports of interest released:

  • Non-farm Payrolls (Feb) came in at 175K versus an expected 163K
  • Non-farm Private Payrolls (Feb) came in at 162K versus an expected 170K
  • Unemployment Rate (Feb) rose to 6.7% versus an expected 6.6%
  • Hourly Earnings (Feb) rose +0.4% versus an expected +0.2% rise
  • Average Work Week (Feb) came in at 34.2 hours versus an expected 34.4K
  • Trade Balance (Jan) came in at -$39.1B versus an expected -$37.3B
  • Consumer Credit (Jan) came in at $13.7B versus an expected $11.8B

The first six reports were released an hour before the open while the last report came out a half hour into the session. 

We are watching gold for a potential reversal in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 26.18 -0.61) fell more than two percent as gold eased nearly one percent after being unable to break through resistance. 

Apple (AAPL 530.44 -0.31) closed flat.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

Seadrill Limited (SDRL 35.40 -0.42) lost another one percent.  We sold March 2014 $35.00 put contracts for $150 at the open on Feb 18th and bought shares at $35.43. 

The U.S. dollar and the Euro both rose one tenth of one percent.  That is a new multi-year closing high for the Euro.

The yield for the 10-year rose five basis points to close at 2.79.  The price of a barrel of crude oil rose +$1.02 to close at $102.58.  

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 14.11 -0.10) rose most of one percent closing below its 200-DMA.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 15.23 +0.29) rose nearly two percent and closed below its 200-DMA. 

Market internals were bearish with decliners leading advancers 4:3 on the NYSE and by one percent on the NASDAQ.  Down volume led up volume 5:4 on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio fell -0.29 to close at 0.94.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.02 to close at 0.55.

Conclusion/Commentary

Friday was all about a mid-day reversal to wipe some of the grins off the smug faces of the bears.  Well, that may be too emotional but the complacency had grown, and this was finally a day when the bulls were unable to uniformly drive prices higher.  In fact, with the exception of the bank indexes, equity indexes finished at or below where they opened.  In other words, the bulls were unable to hold onto their advantage on Friday.  We would expect the bulls to struggle a bit on Monday as well but we are not yet ready to bet against them.  We will continue to monitor equity indexes for potential topping signs.  Until then, we remain net long equities.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com 

Good morning traders,

I wanted to share this grid today:

stock market trends

For the past 9 years, Mark has been advising traders which of the above indices to buy, and when.  The lower section shows the 3 positions they have on right now and their returns.  This isn’t a long term trading service, it’s a short term service, so given that – these returns are pretty significant.  In addition, you can leverage these returns through the use of leveraged ETFs and get 2 or even 3x these returns!

What’s more, is that subscribers can hang in a trading chat room with Mark during the trading day.  I can guarantee you that you will not find a financial newsletter, providing returns like this as well as offering you the ability to talk to the editor during the trading day – every trading day.

Want to give the service a try?  Visit www.mcmillan-portfolio.com and give it a try.  Why is this a good time to subscribe?  Because the elusive top in this market will come – and you’ll want to be prepared for it…

S&P-500 makes new intraday high but closes below prior closing high…
2/25/2014 8:52:52 AM
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S&P-500 makes new intraday high but closes below prior closing high…

Bulls make the push but can not hold on…

Recommendation:  Take no action. 

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 McMillan Portfolio

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $33.90 on June 15, 2012 (Shares were put to us when options expired. We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options and bought them for $35.00 each).  We have collected dividends: December 3, 2013 $0.95, September 5, 2013 $0.91, June 5, 2013 $0.88, $1.70 Dec 4, 2012, $0.84 Sep 4, 2012. Total = $5.28 in dividend payments.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

Long SDRL at $35.43 on Feb 18, 2014

Short SDRL March ’14 $35.00 puts for $1.50 per share

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher and shot up in the first half hour then continued moving higher finally cresting in the middle of the lunch hour and giving back some of the gains through the rest of the session.  Price action was an inverted fish hook in shape.  This left all three major indexes with fractional gains after having been up more than one percent intraday.  All three remain above their 20-, 50-, and 200-Day Moving Averages (DMAs).  The S&P-500 shifted to a BULLISH BIAS joining the NASDAQ-100 but the Dow retains its BEARISH BIAS.  The Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.64 +0.16) added a fractional gain while the Bank Index (KBE 32.51 +0.48) and the Regional Bank Index (KRE 38.88 +0.73) added more than one percent.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 116.51 +0.85), the Semiconductor Index (SOX 563.37 +2.16), and the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 131.67 +0.58) all closed fractionally higher.  All equity indexes we regularly report on closed above their 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs except the Bank Index and Regional Bank Index which closed above their 20- and 200-DMAs but below their 50-DMAs.  The NASDAQ-100 and Semiconductor Index are in uptrend states while the other equity indexes are in trading states.  All equity indexes with a BEARISH BIAS have warned of a potential shift to a BULLISH BIAS.  Longer term bonds (TLT 106.40 -0.27) closed fractionally lower and remains above its 50-DMA but below its 20- and 200-DMAs which are currently converged.  It is in a trading state and maintains its BULLISH BIAS but warned of a potential shift to a BEARISH BIAS.  Trading volume was light with 706M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume remained average with 2.138B shares traded.

There were no economic reports of interest released. 

We are watching gold for a potential reversal in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 26.70 +0.17) rose fractionally.  To close on its 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) and remains above its 200-DMA.  The price of gold added more than one percent.

Apple (AAPL 527.55 +2.03) added a fractional gain.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

Seadrill Limited (SDRL 37.68 +0.85) added more than two percent.  After hours, SDRL announced earnings which missed analysts expectations and the stock traded six percent lower.  While the exceeded revenue and operating earnings expectations, the took a $185M charge on investment losses.  We sold March 2014 $35.00 put contracts for $150 at the open on Feb 18th and bought shares at $35.43.  SDRL continues to trade above support and has raised its dividend to $0.98 which will be paid in early March.

The U.S. dollar and the Euro were essentially unchanged.  We believe that the dollar is headed higher and the Euro lower but both may be stalled for a few days.

The yield for the 10-year rose two basis points to close at 2.75.  The price of a barrel of crude oil added sixty-two cents to close at $102.82

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 14.23 -0.45) fell three percent.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 15.24 -0.57) fell nearly four percent.  Both the VIX and the VXN closed below their respective 200-DMAs. 

Market internals were bullish with advancers leading decliners 8:5 on the NYSE and by 9:5 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume 3:2 on the NYSE and by 2:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.09 to close at 0.89.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.03 to close at 0.55.

Conclusion/Commentary

Monday saw quite a swing in intraday trading prices.  Volume was light to average as the bulls and the bears remain locked in battle.  All three major indexes were up more than one percent intraday but closed just fractionally higher.  The bulls pushed the S&P-500 to new all time trading highs but the close was a fraction of a point below its closing high in mid-January.  The NASDAQ-100 closed at a multi-year high and the Semiconductor Index and Russell-2000 are poised to do the same thing.  We will remain long while we wait to see if the bulls can push the S&P-500 to a new all time high.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com 

Retesting the highs…

Yellen gives first testimony to Congress and bulls are buying…

Recommendation:  Take no action.   

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 stock market trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher and proceeded to march higher through the session.  While there were minor pullbacks during the session, they were hardly noticeable for the most part.  Only the sell-off in the final forty-five minutes was very visible and this just left the major indexes closing modestly below their intraday highs.  The NASDAQ-100 came within a hair’s breadth of reaching its multi-year high, which occurred on January 22nd.  The S&P-500 closed above its 20- and 50-Day Moving Averages (DMAs) and even the Dow managed to close above its 20-DMA.  The All recorded gains of more than one percent with the Dow having greater relative strength than the other two for the day.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 112.03 +0.99) managed a strong fractional close but remains below its 20- and 50-DMAs.  The Dow Jones Transports (IYT 129.96 +1.56) closed just below its 50-DMA and is still below its 20-DMA.  The Semiconductors Index (SOX 544.86 +6.82) continues to provide leadership to the upside and remains above its 20- and 50-DMAs.  Even the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.53 +0.22) was able to close above its 20- and 50-DMAs.  The laggards remain the Bank Index (KBE 32.18 +0.31) which closed up one percent and the Regional Bank Index (KRE 38.48 +0.55) which soared nearly 1.5% higher.   Both remain below their respective 20- and 50-DMAs.  Only the Semiconductor has achieved an uptrend state with the NASDAQ-100 likely to shift to that if there is another strong bullish day.  The others are all in trading states.  With that said, only the NASDAQ-100 and Semiconductor Index remain with a BULLISH BIAS.  All others have a BEARISH BIAS.  Longer term bonds (TLT 106.47 -0.62) lose a bit more than one half of one percent and closed below its 20- and 200-DMAs but remains above its 50-DMA.  It is in a trading state but maintains its BULLISH BIAS.  Trading volume rose modestly remaining light with 710M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume increased to average with 1.982B shares traded.

There were two economic reports of interest released:

  • JOLTS Job Openings (Dec) came in at 3.990M versus November’s 4.033M
  • Wholesale Inventories (Dec) rose +0.3% versus an expected +0.6% rise

Both reports were released a half hour into the session.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen testified in front of Congress for the first time on Tuesday.  Apparently, the bulls liked what they were hearing and continued buying through the session.  She did not seem to stumble which is a good sign for potential success going forward for the new chair.

We are watching gold for a potential reversal in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 25.65 +0.95) rose nearly four percent closing above its 200-DMA for the first time since November 2012.  The price of gold rose a bit more than one percent.

Apple (AAPL 535.96 +6.97) rose more than one percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar and the Euro were essentially unchanged. 

The yield for the 10-year rose four basis points to close at 2.72.  The price of a barrel of crude fell forty-three cents to close at $99.94.  

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 14.51 -0.75) fell five percent.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 15.84 -0.69) fell four percent.  This left the VIX closing just below its 200-DMA and with VXN touching its 200-DMA intraday but closing just above its 200-DMA. 

Market internals were bullish with advancers leading decliners 7:2 on the NYSE and by 7:3 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume by more than 4:1 on the NYSE and by nearly 3:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio fell -0.04 to close at 1.01.  The equity put/call ratio fell -0.16 to close at 0.55.

Conclusion/Commentary

Tuesday was the first time this year that the Dow has shown greater relative strength than the NASDAQ-100 and S&P-500.  It is still about four percent away from its recent high on December 1st last year.  Contrast that with the S&P-500 which is less than two percent from its high and the NASDAQ-100 and Semiconductor indexes which are less than one half of one percent from their highs.  Trading action will focus on the bulls testing at least some of those highs and success means that more bears will capitulate.  We have been short term bullish for the major indexes but we are intermediate term bearish.  While some equity indexes will test up and likely break to new highs, we believe that this will set up a good shorting opportunity rather than a new bull rally.  We remain long the major indexes at this time but are cautious.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com 

The Dow retakes its 200-DMA…
2/7/2014 8:55:00 AM

The Dow retakes its 200-DMA…

Equity indexes finish one percent higher or more…

Recommendation:  Take no action.   

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher and continued moving higher for the first hour and a half of trading before shifting to sideways trading until only two hours remained in the session.  From there, the bulls began buying in earnest again and prices shot up for a half hour before moving less steadily higher into the close.  All three major indexes finished with gains or around 1.3%.  The Dow has opened on its 200-Day Moving Average (DMA) and closed well above that important indicator.  Now all equity indexes we follow are above their 200-DMAs and all are in downtrend states with the noted exception of the Semiconductor Index (SOX 526.67 +8.21) which also is the only equity index we regularly follow to close back above its 50-DMA.  The Dow, S&P-500, Russell-2000 (IWM 109.51 +0.86), Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.03 +0.32), Bank Index (KBE 31.61 +0.35) and Regional Bank Index (KRE 37.85 +0.42) all have a BEARISH BIAS with the other equity indexes warning of a potential shift to that as well.  The Dow Jones Transports(IYT 128.60 +1.85) added more than one percent recovering somewhat as the relatively weakest of the leading indexes.  Longer term bonds (TLT 106.70 -0.46) posted a fractional loss and is below its 200-DMA but above its 20- and 50-DMAs.  It shifted to a trading state but maintains its BULLISH BIAS.  Trading volume remained at a light 743M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume declined modestly to average with 1.930B shares traded.

In addition to the weekly natural gas inventory report, there were six economic reports of interest released:

  • Challenger Job Cuts (Jan) rose +47.3%
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week came in at 331K versus an expected 335K
  • Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 2.964M versus an expected 2.993M
  • Trade Balance (Dec) came in at -$38.7B versus an expected -$36.0B
  • Productivity – Prel (Q4) rose +3.2% versus an expected +2.4% rise
  • Unit Labor Costs (Q4) declined -1.6% versus an expected -0.5% decline

All reports were released an hour or more before the open. 

We are watching gold for a potential reversal in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 23.19 -0.02) was essentially unchanged as was the price of gold.

Apple (AAPL 512.51 -0.08) closed essentially flat.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar fell one tenth of one percent while the Euro rose four tenths of one percent.  The European Central Bank elected to leave rates unchanged.

The yield for the 10-year rose three basis points to close at 2.70.  The price of a barrel of crude rose forty-six cents to close at $97.84.  

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 17.23 -2.72) fell fourteen percent.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 19.48 -1.67) fell eight percent.  Both the VIX and VXN closed well above their 200-DMAs. 

Market internals were bullish with advancers leading decliners 3:1 on the NYSE and by 2:1 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume nearly 4:1 on the NYSE and by 3:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio fell -0.03 to close at 0.98.  The equity put/call ratio fell -0.01 to close at 0.61.

Conclusion/Commentary

Thursday was the bulls finally shifting from defense to offense.  In the best single day gains of the year, the Dow was able to rally back above its 200-DMA and the Semiconductor Index retook its 50-DMA and shifted to a trading state.  There are several areas of overhead resistance here, and any of them could end the rally higher.  We are cautiously optimistic that the bulls have regained their composure and are looking for a nice rally in the very near term.  Stay tuned.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com 

The bears flex their might…

Dow continues to lead the way lower…

Recommendation:  Take no action.    

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened lower then moved lower until a modest late morning rally began but it fizzled by noon and stocks, once again, moved lower.  Buying began around 2:00pm EST after the Dow dipped down to touch its 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) and was steady into the close which left the major indexes well off of their bottoms but not able to recover from the lower open.  This left the Dow with a loss of more than one percent but the NASDAQ-100 and S&P-500 posted fractional losses.  The Dow and S&P-500 closed below their respective 20-DMAs.  In addition, the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.60 -0.36) fell more than one percent and closed below its 20-DMA.  All other equity indexes we regularly monitor finished above their respective 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs.  The Bank Index (KBE 33.59 -0.44) and the Regional Bank Index (KRE 40.58 -0.59) fell more than one percent.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 116.42 -0.79) posted a fractional loss while the Semiconductor Index (SOX 541.49 -5.98) lost more than one percent.  The standout winner for the day was the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 135.54 +0.38) which posted a fractional gain.  Both the transports and the semiconductors remain in uptrend states with all other equity indexes in trading states.  Longer term bonds (TLT 106.79 +1.49) added more than one percent and continues to have a BULLISH BIAS and remains in an uptrend state.  It remains above its 20- and 50-DMAs but below its 200-DMA.  Trading volume was was below average with 768M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume was average with 2.126B shares traded. 

In addition to the crude oil inventory report, there were five economic reports of interest released:

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week came in at 326K versus an expected 327K
  • Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 3.056M versus an expected 2.900M
  • FHFA Housing Price Index (Nov) rose +0.1% versus October’s +0.5%
  • Existing Home Sales (Dec) came in at 4.87M versus an expected 4.90M
  • Leading Economic Indicators (Dec) rose +0.1% versus an expected +0.2% rise

The first three reports were released before the open while the latter two came out a half hour into trading.

We are watching gold for a potential bottom and are looking at entering a long position in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 23.72 +0.63) rose nearly three percent as gold rose more than two percent.

Apple (AAPL 556.18 +4.67) rose most of one percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar fell more than one percent while the Euro rose a like amount.

The yield for the 10-year fell nine basis points to close at 2.77.  The price of a barrel of crude rose fifty-nine cents to close at $97.32.  The U.S. government reported that crude oil inventories rose by 990K barrels last week.

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 13.77 +0.93) rose seven percent and the implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 15.33 +0.90) rose six percent.  The VIX pushed up through its 200-DMA intraday but then settled below that level.  The VXN closed just above its 200-DMA.    

Market internals were bearish with decliners leading advancers 2:1 on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ.  Down volume led up volume 3:1 on the NYSE and by 7:3 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio fell -0.25 to close at 0.90.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.13 to close at 0.65.

Conclusion/Commentary

Thursday caught market bulls by surprise.  China economic data saw a modest contraction.  This caused markets in Asia to sell off then the selling caught on globally.  Once again, we saw late day buying come in and it mitigated the damage but was a bearish day overall.  Financials were particularly hard hit.  This could be the beginning of a larger move but the pattern of market participants buying the dip has held since October of last year for shorter time frames and since 2009 or 2011 (depending on how you interpret it) for longer time frames.  With the leading indexes showing relative strength of the other indexes, we will remain long until we see whether the bears can successfully defeat the bulls on Friday.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

Bears flex their muscles…

Bulls can not hold onto gap up open…

Recommendation:  Take no action.    

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher then plunged lower for a bit more than an hour and a half taking all the major indexes into negative territory.  From there, the bulls forced prices higher through the rest of the morning and the lunch hour only to lose control to the bears for the early afternoon.  From a bit after 2:00pm, the bulls closed ranks and drove prices higher into the close.  Still, the damage was done and the NASDAQ-100 and Dow finished fractionally lower while the S&P-500 was able to eek out a modest gain.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 114.89 +0.03) closed flat while the Semiconductor Index (SOX 531.49 -4.27) fell to a fractional loss.  The Dow Jones Transports (IYT 132.11 +1.44) were the standout winners adding more than one percent.  The Bank Index (KBE 33.58 +0.24), the Regional Bank Index (KRE 40.44 +0.30), and the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 22.07 +0.08) all added fractional gains.  All equity indexes finished above their 20-, 50-, and 200-Day Moving Averages (DMAs).  All equity indexes that we regularly follow are in trading states.  Longer term bonds (TLT 103.18 +0.60) posted a fractional gain and closed above its 20-DMA but below its 50- and 200-DMAs.  It has a BEARISH BIAS and is in a trading state.  Trading volume decreased to below average with 693M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume decreased to above average with 2.195B shares traded. 

There were three economic reports of interest released:

  • Challenger Job Cuts (Dec) fell -5.9%
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week came in at 330K versus an expected 338K
  • Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 2.865M versus an expected 2.875M

All three reports were released an hour or more before the open.

We are watching gold for a potential bottom and are looking at entering a long position in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 21.27 -0.34) lost more than 1.5%.

Apple (AAPL 536.52 -6.94) fell more than one percent.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar fell one tenth of one percent while the Euro rose a like amount.

The yield for the 10-year fell three basis points to close at 2.96.  The price of a barrel of crude fell seventy-seven cents to close at $91.66

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 12.89 +0.02) closed flat.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 15.10 +0.22) rose more than one percent.  Both the VIX and VXN remain below their respective 200-DMAs.    

Market internals were mixed with advancers leading decliners 11:10 on the NYSE while decliners led advancers modestly on the NASDAQ.  Down volume led up volume by a narrow margin on the NYSE and by 5:4 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio fell -0.21 to close at 0.75.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.05 to close at 0.55.

Conclusion/Commentary

Thursday saw mixed trading action with two of the three major indexes finishing lower.  The leading indexes also finished mixed with financials looking relatively stronger than most other sectors.  We will continue to monitor trading as there has not yet been a break out or break down that forces us to consider changing our positions.  We remain long at this time.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

Mixed trading action…

Setting up for a larger move…

Recommendation:  Take no action.    

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened flat to lower then traded mixed with the Dow and S&P-500 finding lows in just under a half an hour while the NASDAQ-100 crawled higher.  All three major indexes saw buying drive prices higher during the next half hour until they traded first lower then again higher in late morning trading.  The afternoon was marked by selling until the final half hour saw buyers step in.  This left the S&P-500 and NASDAQ-100 with relatively modest gains and with the Dow sporting a fractional loss.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 114.86 +0.15), the Semiconductor Index (SOX 535.76 +8.33), and the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 130.67 +0.58) all posted gains with the semiconductors clearly showing outstanding strength.  The Bank Index (KBE 33.34 +0.29), the Regional Bank Index (KRE 40.14 +0.04), and the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.99 +0.07) all rose fractionally.  All equity indexes finished above their 20-, 50-, and 200-Day Moving Averages (DMAs).  All equity indexes that we regularly follow are in trading states.  Longer term bonds (TLT 102.58 -0.28) posted a modest loss and closed below its 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs.  It has a BEARISH BIAS and is in a trading state.  Trading volume increased to average with 758M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume increased remaining heavy with 2.315B shares traded. 

There were four economic reports of interest released:

  • MBA Mortgage Index for last week rose +2.6%
  • ADP Employment Change (Dec) saw 238K jobs added versus an expected 203K
  • Consumer Credit (Nov) came in at $12.3B versus an expected $15.2B

The first two reports were released more than an hour before the market opened.  The other report was released one hour before the close.

In addition to the economic reports, the Fed released the minutes from their December meeting.  The minutes showed a vigorous debate as to whether to begin tapering of QE, how much to taper, etc.  It did not solidify when or how much a future taper would be.  The minutes were released at 2:00pm EST.

We are watching gold for a potential bottom and are looking at entering a long position in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 21.61 -0.36) lost more than 1.5%.

Apple (AAPL 543.46 +3.42) rose fractionally.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar rose two tenths of one percent while the Euro fell a like amount.

The yield for the 10-year rose five basis points to close at 2.99.  The price of a barrel of crude fell -$1.34 to close at $92.33.  The U.S. government reported a draw down of -2.675M barrels of crude oil last week.

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 12.87 -0.05) closed relatively unchanged.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 14.88 -0.22) fell more than one percent.  Both the VIX and VXN remain below their respective 200-DMAs.    

Market internals were mixed with decliners leading advancers 4:3 on the NYSE and by 11:10 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume by a narrow margin on the NYSE and by 3:2 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.07 to close at 0.96.  The equity put/call ratio rose +0.03 to close at 0.50.

Conclusion/Commentary

Wednesday saw mixed trading action with many equities higher but even more closed lower.  However, there was more up than down volume suggesting that the market is still likely to rally here.  We will continue to monitor trading as there has not yet been a break out or break down that forces us to consider changing our positions.  We remain long at this time.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

The bulls fight back…

The bulls were buying but were unable to force a break out…

Recommendation:  Take no action.    

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today!  For a limited time, try our chat room for free.  No subscription necessary to give it a try.

Stock Market Trends:

 Stock Market Trends

– ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

– The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade.  A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will. 

– The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position.  If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance.  The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on “weaker” signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

– At Risk is generally neutral represented by “-“.  When it is “Bullish” or “Bearish” it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

– The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.

Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013

Long QQQ at $85.99 as of December 19, 2013

Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.

Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $35.00 (Shares were put to us when options expired on June 15, 2012.  We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options).  We have collected significant dividend payments since entering the position.

Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012

Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012

Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you’re not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

The major indexes opened higher and rose for more than an hour before beginning a see-saw move that allowed them to work their way gradually higher and finish with healthy fractional gains.  The Russell-2000 (IWM 114.71 +0.95), the Semiconductor Index (SOX 527.43 +3.66), and the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 130.09 +0.87) all posted fractional gains.  The Bank Index (KBE 33.05 +0.21), the Regional Bank Index (KRE 40.10 +0.35), and the Finance Sector ETF (XLF 21.92 +0.01) all managed to make gains although the latter was close to flat.  All equity indexes finished above their 20-, 50-, and 200-Day Moving Averages (DMAs).  Only the Dow was able to maintain its uptrend state.  All other equity indexes we regularly follow were in trading states.  Longer term bonds (TLT 102.86 +0.26) posted a modest gain and closed even with its 20-DMA.  It remains below its 50- and 200-DMAs.  It has a BEARISH BIAS but shifted to a trading state.  Trading volume increased to below average with 699M shares traded on the NYSE.  On the NASDAQ, trading volume increased modestly remaining heavy with 2.258B shares traded. 

There was a single economic report of interest released:

  • Trade Balance (Nov) came in at -$34.3B versus an expected -$40.4B

The report was released on hour before the open.

We are watching gold for a potential bottom and are looking at entering a long position in the Gold Miners Index (GDX 21.97 +0.04) was nearly unchanged.

Apple (AAPL 540.04 -3.89) fell fractionally.  AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500. 

The U.S. dollar rose three tenths of one percent while the Euro fell two tenths of one percent.

The yield for the 10-year fell a single basis point to close at 2.94.  The price of a barrel of crude rose twenty-four cents to close at $93.67

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 12.92 -0.63) fell more than four percent.  The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 15.10 -0.72) fell most of five percent.  The VIX is remains below its 200-DMA and the VXN finally closed below its 200-DMA.    

Market internals were bullish with advancers leading decliners 2:1 on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ.  Up volume led down volume 3:2 on the NYSE and by 4:1 on the NASDAQ.  The index put/call ratio rose +0.15 to close at 0.89.  The equity put/call ratio fell -0.05 to close at 0.47.

Conclusion/Commentary

Tuesday saw the bulls flex their muscles to have nice fractional gains across the board.  Volume increased modestly but equity indexes remain just below resistance levels, for the most part.  Wednesday will be a key day to determine whether the bulls have enough drive to force the markets to break through resistance or whether the bears sense enough weakness to begin a long awaiting journey south.  We can see it going either way and remain long at this time.

We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio.  You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.